Which Automaker Is Going To Surge Most From US EV Tax Credit Rush? – CleanTechnica

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There’s one day left to get an electric vehicle in the US and get a big tax credit for buying it! I was writing the other day about my surprise that Tesla isn’t sold out yet. After writing that, I started wondering, “Which automaker is going to see the biggest surge in sales thanks to the EV tax credit phasing out?” Who is going to capitalize the most on buyers rushing to buy an EV in the third quarter?

Before speculating a bit on this, let’s look at what’s on the market. Here are the models on the market and their starting prices:

EV Model	Price
Acura ZDX	$64,500
Audi e-tron GT	$125,500
Audi Q4 e-tron	$49,800
Audi Q4 e-tron Sportback	$58,200
Audi Q6 e-tron	$63,800
Audi Q6 e-tron Sportback	$69,600
Audi SQ6 e-tron	$72,900
Audi SQ6 e-tron Sportback	$76,300
Audi AS e-tron Sportback	$65,900
Audi S6 e-tron Sportback	$78,700
BMW i4	$57,900
BMW i5	$67,100
BMW i7	$105,700
BMW iX	$75,150
Brightdrop 400	$46,425
Brightdrop 600	$47,925
Cadillac Escalade IQ	$127,700
Cadillac LYRIQ	$59,200
Cadillac OPTIQ	$50,900
Cadillac VISTIQ	$77,395
Chevy Blazer EV	$44,600
Chevy Equinox EV	$33,600
Chevy Silverado EV	$73,100
Dodge Charger BEV	$59,595
Fiat 500e	$30,500
Ford E-Transit	$45,700
Ford F-150 Lightning	$54,780
Ford Mustang Mach-E	$37,995
Genesis GV60	$52,525
Genesis GV70	$64,380
GMC Hummer EV	$96,600
GMC Sierra EV	$62,400
Honda Prologue	$47,400
Hyundai Ioniq 5	$42,600
Hyundai Ioniq 6	$37,850
Hyundai Ioniq 9	$58,955
Hyundai Kona EV	$32,975
Jaguar I-PACE	$72,500
Jeep Wagoneer S	$65,200
Kia EV6	$42,900
Kia EV9	$54,900
Kia Niro EV	$39,600
Lexus RZ	$44,095
Lucid Air	$70,900
Lucid Gravity	$94,900
Mercedes EQS	$89,950
Mercedes EQE	$64,950
Mercedes EQB	$53,050
Nissan Ariya	$39,770
Nissan LEAF	$29,990
Porsche Macan	$81,600
Porsche Taycan	$103,900
Rivian R1S	$76,990
Rivian R1T	$70,990
Subaru Solterra	$38,495
Tesla Model Y	$44,990
Tesla Model 3	$42,490
Tesla Model S	$94,990
Tesla Model X	$99,990
Tesla Cybertruck	$79,990
Toyota BZ4X	$34,900
Vinfast VF8	$41,100
Vinfast VF9	$62,900
Volvo EX30	$46,195
Volvo EX40	$53,795
Volvo EX90	$81,290
Volkswagen ID.4	$45,095
Volkswagen ID.Buzz	$59,995

Now, remember that, as the IRS states, “the vehicle’s manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) can’t exceed:

• $80,000 for vans, sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks
• $55,000 for other vehicles”

That excludes many of the models above, but there are also many models that do qualify, including from Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Lexus, Mercedes, Nissan, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Vinfast, Volvo, and Volkswagen. Which of these brands do you think is most likely to benefit from a surge in buyers coming in and buying their EVs in the 3rd quarter? For some background, here were 2nd quarter sales by model:

If we consider those sales a baseline, which models are going to surprise when Q3 sales numbers come out? Or, for that matter, which models will disappoint?

Of course, a critical component here is how many vehicles the automaker was able and willing to produce for 3rd quarter sales.

Naturally, since Tesla has much more production capacity than it’s been using in recent quarters, I have to assume Tesla is going to have a much bigger quarter — even despite the automaker still having inventory available around the US. I have some faith that Chevrolet and Ford have the capacity to do a decent production and sales push, and perhaps Nissan as well. I’m less confident about other mass-market brands.

As we’ve seen when looking at the share of vehicle sales that are electric from each brand, luxury makes have topped the charts (Cadillac, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Porsche, etc.). However, many of these models don’t qualify for the tax credit. Though, several of the smaller SUVs and crossovers do, and luxury car buyers are more likely to be looking for tax credits to reduce their taxes, so perhaps the SUV models below $80,000 from these brands will be the big winners. We’ll see. The numbers should start coming out within the next few days!