What does the US election mean for business and the climate?  

The upcoming US election sees Joe Biden and Donald Trump both fighting for a second term in office.

The most recent significant recent development in the race for the White House was Trump’s conviction last week of falsifying business records. He became the first former or sitting US president to be criminally convicted, which will undoubtedly sway some votes in what is a very tight contest.

While much of the election coverage has been focused on the candidates rather than policy, GlobalData’s newly published Deep Dive into the 2024 US Elections report unpacks each election outcome and the impact on domestic and foreign policy as well as net zero goals.

Potential outcomes  

The success of either candidate will see them embark on a second administrative term, however, the results of the House of Representatives and Senate election will heavily affect their ability the president’s ability to govern.

A united government refers to when one party wins a majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House, while a divided government occurs when the executive and legislative branches are split across party lines.

While forecasts currently anticipate a split congress, it could swing to a Republican majority congress.

“A divided government will impact how aggressive either President can be with their policy decisions,” explained GlobalData analyst and report author Carolina Pinto. “In a divided government, more concessions need to be made to accommodate the differing views of opposing parties. This both slows down the pace at which legislation is passed and waters down the original policy changes intended by the President’s initiative.”

Economy 

If Biden wins again, he will likely try and continue on the same path regarding economic policy by promoting the reshoring of manufacturing, increasing public investment and trying to lower unemployment. Accompanying these projects, Biden has suggested raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

In contrast, Trump’s second administration would likely focus primarily on tax cuts and tough protectionist policies with a proposition to reduce the corporate tax rate to 15%. In addition, Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on global imports and 60% on Chinese imports, doubling down on the US-China trade war he began in 2018 during his first term in office.

“The tariffs will likely increase business costs and reduce profit margins as many US businesses rely on cheaper raw material imports to provide competitive pricing,” said Pinto. “This will force companies to pass on the cost increases to consumers, making US trade overall less competitive.”

Trump is also likely to limit resources allocated to Biden-era investments such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act.

Climate  

A second Biden administration would see a continuation of investment into clean energy sources, such as solar panels, offshore wind farms and a national electric vehicle (EV) charging station network.

In spite of Biden being perceived as the more eco-conscious candidate, during his current presidency, the US oil and gas industry has reported record-high production.

 “Achieving net zero requires a global acceleration in the energy transition,” said Pinto. “China dominates many clean energy technologies’ supply chains. Biden’s efforts to re-shore production and decouple from China will make the energy transition a slower and more expensive process.” 

In comparison, Trump is likely to reel back some of Biden’s greener policies, although a split Congress could curtail his ability to implement more extreme anti-climate policies.

“Trump has not committed to leaving the Paris Agreement again, but has promised to increase investment in the oil and gas industry and repeal some of Biden’s green initiatives,” noted Pinto.  

“This will include expanding permits for the production and distribution of petroleum products, ending Biden’s recent pause on liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, and dropping the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) emissions standards and regulations, approved by Biden in March 2024.”