The gold and silver markets have been riding a strong bullish trend, and according to Jordan Roy-Byrne, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA), the best is yet to come.
In a recent interview on the Money Metals podcast with host Mike Maharrey, Roy-Byrne shared his insights on the trajectory of gold and silver, the role of technical analysis, and why he believes silver will soon outperform gold in the ongoing bull market.
(Interview Starts Around the 6:54 Mark)
Who Is Jordan Roy-Byrne?
Jordan Roy-Byrne
Jordan Roy-Byrne is a seasoned market analyst specializing in technical analysis of the gold and silver markets. Roy-Byrne is a CMT (Chartered Market Technician) and MFTA (Master of Financial Technical Analysis), credentials that underscore his expertise in analyzing financial markets through technical indicators and historical patterns.
He is the editor and publisher of The Daily Gold and The Daily Gold Premium, where he provides in-depth research on precious metals trends and mining stocks.
With decades of experience, Roy-Byrne has built a reputation for his data-driven approach to analyzing market cycles, intermarket trends, and historical price patterns. His insights are sought after by investors looking to navigate the complex world of gold, silver, and mining equities.
Beyond technical analysis, he integrates fundamental and macroeconomic trends into his research, allowing him to anticipate major shifts in the financial landscape. His expertise is particularly valuable in the current economic environment, where gold and silver are poised for a significant long-term bull market.
A New Book for a New Bull Market
Jordan Roy-Byrne recently released his book, Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun, in January 2024. While currently available as a free digital download, the book will soon be released as a hardcover on Amazon.
He emphasized the importance of a hardcover edition, given the book’s heavy reliance on charts and visuals that may not hold up as well in paperback format.
The timing of the book’s release couldn’t be better. Gold has already broken past the $2,100 per ounce level, signaling the start of a major secular bull market.
According to Roy-Byrne, this is only the beginning, and investors should expect much larger moves in the coming years.
The Case for a Continued Bull Market
When asked for an “elevator pitch” on why the gold bull market will continue, Roy-Byrne explained that major asset classes—stocks, commodities, bonds, and gold—tend to move in secular trends lasting decades.
Stocks generally move in cycles of 15–20 years, while bonds can trend for as long as 30–40 years. Historically, gold’s last two secular bull markets lasted about 10–11 years.
Right now, the bond market is in a secular bear phase, which is a rare event—only one such period has occurred in the past 100 years (1965–1982). Stocks are nearing the end of their long-term bull market, creating a setup reminiscent of the late 1960s and 1970s when gold and silver soared.
Gold has already confirmed its breakout from a 13-year cup-and-handle pattern, and once the stock market finally rolls over, we can expect an explosive move in gold, silver, and commodities.
The Power of Technical Analysis
Roy-Byrne, an expert in technical analysis, acknowledges that it often gets a bad reputation due to the overuse of flawed chart interpretations. However, he emphasizes that, at its core, technical analysis is simply the study of price trends, supply, and demand.
A key aspect of his approach is intermarket analysis, which examines relationships between different asset classes, such as gold versus stocks, gold versus bonds, and the gold-to-silver ratio. He noted that while fundamental analysis is essential, it can be highly unpredictable, whereas technical analysis provides a data-driven framework to assess market trends and turning points.
For example, by analyzing historical market cycles, Roy-Byrne can identify the conditions that typically precede recessions or inflationary periods—critical information for investors positioning themselves ahead of major macroeconomic shifts.
Silver’s Time to Shine
Silver investors have been eagerly awaiting a breakout, as the metal has been relatively range-bound for years. The gold-to-silver ratio remains high, sitting above 90:1, reinforcing silver’s relative undervaluation. However, Roy-Byrne believes silver is poised to outperform gold as the bull market progresses.
His reasoning is based on historical precedent: in every previous secular bull market in precious metals, silver has eventually outperformed gold.
But so far, gold has not yet broken out significantly against the stock market or the traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds), a crucial indicator of where capital is flowing.
This year could mark a turning point. Once gold decisively outperforms conventional investments, more capital will flow into precious metals, benefiting silver in particular.
Roy-Byrne downplays industrial demand’s role in silver’s price action, asserting that silver is ultimately a monetary metal, driven by investment demand and its correlation with gold. However, he acknowledges that industrial demand is accelerating.
David Morgan, a well-known silver analyst, has pointed to data suggesting that within the next decade, silver’s industrial demand could become so tight that a major squeeze—or even an attempt to corner the market—could emerge.
From a technical standpoint, silver is forming a 45-year-long base, one of the longest in history. When it finally breaks above $50 per ounce, Roy-Byrne predicts an explosive move higher, potentially reaching $90–$95 per ounce within 12–14 months.
The Importance of the Bond Market Shift
Roy-Byrne highlights an underappreciated trend: the ongoing secular bear market in bonds.
Since 1965, bonds have only experienced one other secular bear phase, meaning that for 85 out of the past 100 years, bonds have trended higher or remained stable. Most investors today have never experienced a sustained bond market downturn, making this transition particularly significant.
He notes that while a near-term recession could spark a countertrend rally in bonds, the longer-term trend is clear: higher bond yields and declining bond values, which historically correlate with rising gold prices.
Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Tightrope
Discussing monetary policy, Roy-Byrne agrees with Maharrey that the Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. On one hand, it needs to maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation. On the other hand, the economy is saddled with decades of easy-money-driven debt, making rate hikes unsustainable in the long run.
He doesn’t believe inflation is under control.
Even if CPI moderates in the short term, the broader trend remains inflationary. Drawing parallels to the late 1960s and 1970s, he suggests that inflation will come in waves, retreating temporarily but surging again in the years ahead.
He also points to commodity markets as a leading indicator.
Copper, for example, is on the verge of breaking out from a 12–13-year base, signaling inflationary pressures building up for the next decade.
The Key Indicator to Watch: Gold vs. 60/40 Portfolio
When asked about a market trend most investors are missing, Roy-Byrne highlights gold’s performance against the 60/40 portfolio, which represents the traditional mix of stocks and bonds.
Despite gold’s recent rise, it has yet to decisively break out against this benchmark. However, it is on the verge of a 10-year breakout, which would signal a major shift in capital flows—out of conventional assets and into gold.
Where to Learn More
Roy-Byrne’s book, Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun, is available as a free digital download at thedailygold.com/book, with a hardcover version coming soon to Amazon.
He is also active on X (formerly Twitter) at @TheDailyGold, where he shares ongoing market analysis.
Final Thoughts
Roy-Byrne’s analysis paints a clear picture: gold and silver are in the early stages of a major bull market. With stocks nearing the end of their secular uptrend, bonds in a rare bear phase, and inflationary pressures building, the stage is set for an extended run in hard assets.
Key Questions & Answers
The following are the key questions and answers from the Money Metals podcast with host Mike Maharrey interviewing precious metals market analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne:
When was Jordan Roy-Byrne’s book released, and why did he choose a hardcover version?
Jordan Roy-Byrne released his book Gold and Silver: The Greatest Bull Market has Begun in January. He initially made it available for free but mentioned that it would soon be available on Amazon as a hardcover. He opted for a hardcover instead of a paperback because the book contains many charts and images, and he wanted to ensure their longevity without fading over time.
What is the elevator pitch for why the gold and silver bull market will continue?
Jordan explains that major asset classes—stocks, commodities, bonds, and gold—move in long-term secular trends. Historically, stocks trend for 15-20 years, bonds for even longer, and gold’s past two bull markets lasted around 10-11 years. Currently, bonds have entered a rare secular bear market, a phenomenon that has only happened once in the past 100 years (1965-1982). Stocks are also nearing the end of a secular bull market. This mirrors conditions from the late 1960s and 1970s when gold and silver performed extremely well. Since gold has already broken out above $2,100 per ounce after a 13-year consolidation, he believes it is entering a new secular bull market. Once the stock market downturn becomes more evident, capital is likely to rotate into hard assets like gold and silver, fueling further gains.
What is technical analysis, and why is it valuable?
Technical analysis is the study of price trends and market action, primarily assessing supply and demand dynamics. While it sometimes gets a bad reputation due to misinformation spread via social media, true technical analysis offers valuable insights. Jordan describes intermarket analysis as particularly useful, which involves studying relationships between various asset classes—such as comparing gold against stocks or bonds. He believes that while fundamental analysis is useful, technical analysis can provide predictive insights, helping investors recognize trend changes before they fully materialize. He also emphasizes that technical analysis is most powerful when combined with fundamental data to create a comprehensive market outlook.
Why has silver underperformed gold, and why does Jordan believe silver will eventually outperform?
Historically, silver outperforms gold during secular bull markets in precious metals. However, silver has lagged behind because gold has not yet fully outperformed conventional assets like stocks and bonds. Jordan uses his proprietary “60/40 indicator,” which tracks gold’s performance relative to a traditional investment portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds). Once gold decisively outperforms this benchmark, capital is more likely to flow into the entire precious metals sector, including silver and mining stocks. Additionally, silver’s long-term technical setup is significant—when silver eventually breaks above $50 per ounce, he expects a major breakout, potentially sending prices dramatically higher. While industrial demand for silver is increasing, Jordan believes the primary driver of silver’s future gains will be its role as a monetary metal.
What is the significance of bonds being in a secular bear market?
Bonds are the largest asset class, and their long-term cycles are extremely important for financial markets. Historically, bonds have been in a bull market for roughly 85 of the past 100 years, with only one prolonged bear market (1965-1982). Most investors today have never experienced a true secular bond bear market, making it an underappreciated risk. While bonds may experience temporary rallies—especially if a recession occurs—Jordan believes the overall trend is downward. This shift has major implications, as it signals a transition away from traditional financial assets toward hard assets like gold and silver.
Does Jordan closely follow Federal Reserve monetary policy?
Jordan follows the Fed’s actions but does not get too deep into the details. He acknowledges that monetary policy plays a significant role in markets but prefers to focus on long-term macro and technical factors rather than short-term Fed decisions.
Is inflation under control, or should we expect more inflation in the future?
Jordan believes that inflation may temporarily decline if a recession occurs, but over the long run, inflation is not under control. He compares the current environment to the late 1960s and 1970s, where inflation came in waves rather than a single, sustained increase. While inflation metrics might decline in the short term, structural factors—including commodity cycles and fiscal policy—suggest that inflationary pressures will resurface. He also argues that even if inflation slows to 1.5% or 2%, the damage has already been done because prices remain significantly higher than pre-COVID levels. Inflation is now embedded in the economy, making it a persistent issue in the years ahead.
What is something significant that most mainstream analysts are missing?
Jordan believes that gold’s performance against the 60/40 portfolio is one of the most critical yet overlooked indicators. This ratio, which compares gold against a balanced stock-bond portfolio, has been in a 10-year base and is close to breaking out. If gold decisively outperforms this benchmark, it signals a major shift in capital away from conventional financial assets and into hard assets like gold and silver. Historically, such breakouts have marked the beginning of major moves higher in gold. He also notes that gold’s performance against the stock market is approaching a four-year resistance level, which, if broken, would further validate the ongoing secular bull market in precious metals.
Where can people get Jordan’s book and follow his work?
Jordan’s book is available for free as a PDF at TheDailyGold.com/book, and he plans to upload an EPUB version soon. A hardcover edition will also be available on Amazon shortly. His website, TheDailyGold.com, offers market analysis, stock recommendations, and insights into junior mining companies. He focuses on small- to mid-tier mining firms with strong management teams and growth potential rather than the largest miners or speculative exploration stocks. He is also active on X (Twitter) under @TheDailyGold, where he shares market insights and analysis.
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