The European Union’s Zero-Emission Trajectory Seems To Be On Track – CleanTechnica

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Breaking down the contents of the ICCT’s tremendously detailed report

Since CleanTechnica is in Europe for a little while, we made it a point to see how the electric vehicle scene is and at the same time gather first hand information on some of the locations visited. We’ve published various reports covering Germany and Belgium. Then this article with a compelling query: Is The European Car Industry Digging Its Own Grave?

European Union’s commitment to achieving a reduction in fleet-wide CO2​ emissions for new passenger cars by 2035 represents one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets for the transport sector.

This analysis is based on the findings of the September 2025 publication, EV Transition Check: Measuring progress towards zero-emission for passenger cars in the European Union prepared by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

The report is a critical data-driven assessment informing the European Commission’s upcoming Progress Report on CO2​ emission standards (Regulation 2019/631), which sets targets of a 55% CO2​ reduction by 2030 and 100% reduction by 2035.

The findings reveal a transition with substantial momentum driven by strong regulation and technological innovation, yet one that still faces critical challenges related to ensuring affordability, securing industrial supply chains, and executing a massive workforce shift.

Market Momentum & Regulatory Compliance

The EU’s CO2​ performance standards are proving effective, acting as the primary catalyst for market transformation. The report notes that since their introduction in 2009, official CO2​ type-approval emissions for new passenger cars have decreased by an average of 4.7g/km per year. By the first half of 2025, the fleet-average CO2​ level had already decreased by 8g/km year-on-year, illustrating accelerated progress in a target year.

Automakers are leveraging electric vehicles (EVs) — defined as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) — to meet their compliance obligations. As of the first half of 2025, BEVs commanded a 17% share of new passenger car and van registrations in Europe, the highest level recorded.

Crucially, major manufacturer pools like BMW, Kia, and Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar were already compliant with or nearing their aggressive 2025−2027 CO2​ targets, highlighting the strategic necessity of electrification for corporate viability. While Germany and France demonstrate robust adoption rates (18% BEV share each), the transition’s pace remains uneven, with Italy (5%) and Spain (8%) lagging in overall market share despite recent rapid growth. This suggests that national-level incentives and support systems are crucial for complementing the EU-wide regulatory push.

The Economic Case & Affordability

For consumers, the economic case for switching to electric is already compelling, largely due to operational savings. The report calculates that BEVs are the cheapest powertrain to operate, with an estimated average electricity cost of just €7.43 per 100km. This compares favorably against diesel ICEVs at €8.60 per 100km and is substantially cheaper than gasoline ICEVs, which cost €11.02 per 100km. This cost advantage is rooted in BEVs’ superior energy efficiency, consuming only 0.73MJ/km compared to 2.07MJ/km for combustion vehicles.

Acquisition costs, traditionally the main barrier, are steadily being eroded by falling battery prices and expanding model availability. The global average price for lithium-ion battery packs has plummeted by 84% over the past decade. This is directly contributing to a surge in affordable options: the number of BEV models priced below €30,000 available in the EU has increased more than tenfold, from just two models in 2020 to 21 models across various segments by 2025.

Furthermore, the secondhand EV market is showing strong growth (e.g., 40% year-on-year growth in France), providing a vital pathway for lower- and medium-income households to access zero-emission mobility, despite higher initial depreciation rates compared to conventional cars.

Climate Imperative

From an environmental and health perspective, the transition to BEVs is indispensable. An analysis of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions confirms the definitive advantage of battery electric technology. BEVs sold today, powered by an increasingly decarbonized EU electricity grid, are estimated to achieve a 73% reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions compared to conventional gasoline ICEVs.

This benefit is compounded by the projected rise of renewable energy, expected to account for 71% of EU electricity generation by 2030, further reducing the BEV’s carbon footprint over its lifetime.

In contrast, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs, which rely heavily on fossil fuels, offer significantly lower life-cycle GHG reductions (20% and 30% respectively). Critically, the report highlights the pervasive issue of the real-world gap for PHEVs, where actual fuel consumption for 2023 models was found to be nearly four times (386%) higher than official test values, undermining their intended climate benefits.

Public Health Dividends

The most compelling finding relates to public health. The 2025−2035 CO2​ standards are projected to deliver profound public health benefits, specifically 42,600 avoided premature deaths and 540,000 years of lifetime gained in the EU between 2021 and 2050 due to reduced tailpipe emissions. Additionally, BEVs are found to have lower non-exhaust particulate matter (PM) emissions — around 20% lower for PM2.5​ — thanks to regenerative braking, confirming that full electrification offers the maximum air quality dividend.

Infrastructure & Grid Resilience

A key measure of readiness is the deployment of charging infrastructure. On this front, the EU has demonstrated strong progress. With over 1 million public chargers installed and 44GW of power output as of July 2025, the average EU Member State has over-complied with its current Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) power output target by a factor of 3.7. The overall growth rate is 63% annually for installed power output, far exceeding the 13% required through 2035.

Integration with the power grid is paramount. EVs are noted as a flexible load asset that, through smart charging, can help integrate renewable energy and minimize the need for costly grid reinforcement. The report provides evidence that a 10% vehicle-to-grid (V2G) managed charging scenario could result in a 9% decrease in peak power load and a 59% decrease in substation unit reinforcement needs in a French case study. Progress is being made on the enablers for this technology, with smart meter deployment reaching 63% across the EU and EV-related smart tariffs surging to 390 in number, representing a 181% increase since 2021.

Industrial Competitiveness

The transition presents both a threat and an opportunity for Europe’s industrial base. The EU is currently a net exporter of EVs, proving that its manufacturers can compete globally. However, maintaining that edge hinges on securing the battery supply chain. While total announced EU battery cell production capacity could theoretically cover 99% of domestic road transport and non-vehicular demand by 2030, only 72% of that capacity is currently operational or highly probable. This reliance on announced (but not yet secured) projects necessitates concerted effort and strong market signals to avoid losing the manufacturing value chain to global competitors, notably China.

Furthermore, the analysis confirms that global raw material reserves for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are more than sufficient to meet cumulative demand through 2050. The EU’s reliance on imports of fossil fuels, in contrast to its domestic electricity production, makes the transition an economic strategy for reducing energy dependency.

Workforce Transition

Finally, the shift requires a massive re-skilling effort.

Between 2020 and 2024, approximately 19,000 new automotive supplier jobs were directly linked to EV technologies, showing a net creation of high-value jobs. However, studies estimate that 2.4 million workers will need to be re-trained in the EU by 2035. EU-wide programs, such as the European Battery Academy and the Automotive Skills Alliance, are essential platforms for ensuring a “just transition” that aligns workers’ skills with the demands of the new electromobility ecosystem.

Infrastructure Needs To Catch Up

While infrastructure deployment is generally on track, the challenge for the next phase of the transition is shifting from merely meeting compliance targets to locking in the industrial and social components of the ecosystem. Sustained policy certainty, targeted financial support for domestic battery manufacturing, and the aggressive scaling of workforce re-skilling programs will be required to convert strong market momentum into a complete, equitable, and industrially competitive zero-emission future.

The ICCT’s EV Transition Check provides a vote of confidence in the EU’s zero-emission path. Regulatory standards have successfully accelerated EV uptake, establishing a compelling economic advantage for consumers through lower driving costs, and promising extraordinary public health benefits.

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Note: The EV Transition Report was written with opinions and analysis from key experts, including Marie Rajon Bernard and Jan Dornoff, and supported by organizations such as Agora Verkehrswende, BEUC, and FIA Region I. CleanTechnica was provided a copy and key insights for this report.