Copper demand has risen due to its role in the energy transition and its use in data centres. Renewable energy infrastructure such as solar panels and wind turbines requires significant copper, and electrification increases the need for wiring, motors, and transformers, raising copper demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and grid upgrades. At the same time, the rapid expansion of large data centres supporting AI and cloud services has driven demand for additional power distribution, cabling, and cooling infrastructure. Together, these trends have produced steady, long-term demand for both new and recycled copper.
Global copper demand has risen at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% over the past two decades, from 16.7 million tonnes in 2004 to 28.5 million tonnes in 2024, as detailed in leading data and analytics company GlobalData’s Global Copper Mining to 2030 report. Looking ahead, global copper demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% to reach 35.1 million tonnes by 2030, as urbanisation, infrastructure expansion, and industrialisation compound with the energy transition. Global copper mine output is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025 to 23.4 million tonnes, up from 22.9 million tonnes in 2024.
Recent disruptions to supply
Accidents and disruptions this year have highlighted the fragility of the copper supply chain. Notable events include an accident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which accounted for 4% of global production in 2024 at 815,000 tonnes (t). On 8 September this year, an 800,000t mud rush blocked access routes, killing two workers. Mining activity was halted, and production is not expected to return to prior levels until 2027. Teck, which is in the process of merging with Anglo-American, has also reported production cuts. Its Quebrada Blanca facility in Chile is expected to produce 170,000-230,000t this year, down from 230,000t in 2024, with reduced forecasts through to 2028. Other disruptions include flooding at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and tunnel collapses at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile after an earthquake, resulting in six fatalities and a 25% production reduction in August.
Some production gains have been recorded in Zambia, Chile, Mongolia, the DRC, and Peru. Assets reporting increases include Mopani, Oyu Tolgoi, Las Bambas, Tenke Fungurume, and Kisanfu.
However, in May 2025, the United Nations (UN) warned that copper shortages could slow the energy transition and technological advancements. The UN Trade and Development body estimated that to reach the surges in demand, $250bn in investment and at least 80 new mining projects would be required.
Outcomes of not meeting copper demands
If this investment and development are not seen, there will be long-term effects on the industry. This is largely due to the time-consuming nature of mineral exploration and bringing a mine online. This is becoming increasingly difficult due to declining ore grades, as well as mine development times increasing.
Consequences could include greater copper price volatility and upward pressure on prices, with knock-on effects for the cost of the energy transition and data centre construction. Production and adoption of related technologies could be delayed.
For mining companies, higher prices may render previously marginal projects now profitable enough to become economically viable. Firms are already diversifying their portfolios to capture the copper opportunity, and more are likely to follow. The copper market is approaching a precarious tipping point: persistent, structural demand from electrification, renewables, and data centre expansion is colliding with a supply side weakened by accidents, production cuts, declining ore grades, and long lead times for new projects. Although some mines have added output, supply may still struggle to keep pace with projected demand growth to 2030. Without the substantial investment and new projects the UN deems necessary, markets face prolonged tightness, greater price volatility, and upward pressure on the costs of EVs, grid upgrades, and digital infrastructure. Policymakers, industry leaders, and investors must therefore accelerate permitting and boost exploration and recycling to avoid bottlenecks that could impede decarbonisation and technological progress.
