“The bull market turns two soon”? Think again, MSfM
The ever entertaining mainstream financial media, which wanted to convince the masses that the yield curve inversions that took place in 2022 signaled the end of economy and bull market *, have a new line they want investors to swallow today. This, I assume, after the yield curve inversion failed to play out bearish as the MSM very wrongly expected (ref. this post showing the MSM now giving the all-clear after the inversion was negated and why it is wrong… again, going in the other direction).
This is a clip of the MSM article title in question today. I cannot access the body of the article because it is the outlet’s premium “pro” service. I don’t pay for their “pro” service because I only pay for helpful things. But the headline is enough to get the gist. Anyone who wants to be this kind of “pro” can have at it.
cnbc.com
So why, smart guy, are they wrong? Isn’t a bull market normally expected to last more than 2 years? I am glad you asked. Yes, of course a bull in stocks usually lasts much longer than 2 years. Okay, so what’s your beef with this bull market that began at the October, 2022 low?
My beef with it is this; 2022 was not a bear market. It was a correction well within an uptrend from March, 2009. Even the crash of 2020 was not a bear market. It was a liquidation and near immediate recovery. But for the sake of argument, if you want to call that a bear market, it’s been 4.5 years since, not 2 as the headline states. But in my opinion, that was a flash crash quickly remedied by policy heroes at the Fed and in government in Q1, 2020. The bull market is actually 15+ years on now.
So MSM, have your little headline of happiness (with a small caveat). It fits your newly retooled yield curve view that was wrong when you were bearish and is very likely to be wrong now that you are bullish.
You are the MSM, after all. Your job is to serve readily digestible and understandable nuggets to the public (and apparently some “pros”, I guess), and who the hell cares about whether it turns out to be wrong? By that time you’ll have moved on and few will remember ** who said what.
* As I parrot all too often, it’s not the inversion that brings the bust, it’s the subsequent steepener.
** I will remember, and I will most certainly broadcast as much if proven right, as is likely (and own up to it if somehow I am wrong because unlike the MSM, I do take responsibility).
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