Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said for years that Tesla needs to “unwind” its delivery wave. It has always had an issue of delivering (aka selling) a lot more vehicles in the 3rd month of a quarter. This has especially been the case on continents where Tesla hasn’t had factories. What has happened recently is Tesla has ramped up production at its European gigafactory in Germany. That has finally allowed Tesla to even out its deliveries more from month to month in Europe.
But let’s turn to Tesla sales tracker Troy Teslike for a better view at what is happening in Europe, and how to avoid being fooled.
In Europe, supply in months 1 and 2 of the quarter used to be low. Therefore sales were low. As supply increased, sales in month 1+2 started to represent a larger percentage of the quarter.
This trend will increase sharply in Q2. I expect Apr+May to represent around 50% of Q2. pic.twitter.com/jaPsXGLRYC
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 19, 2023
As you can see in the second tweet above, Troy wrote, “In Europe, supply in months 1 and 2 of the quarter used to be low. Therefore sales were low. As supply increased, sales in month 1+2 started to represent a larger percentage of the quarter. This trend will increase sharply in Q2. I expect Apr+May to represent around 50% of Q2.”
A couple of days later, June 21, he provided an update. As you can see in this first tweet in a 3-tweet thread, even if Tesla had the same number of sales quarter to quarter, the 3rd month of the quarter would have lower sales than before, as more of the quarter’s sales would be sent to customers in the 1st and 2nd quarters.
1/
Tesla is reducing the quarterly delivery wave in Europe by making more cars available to deliver early in the quarter. As a result, the first two months account for a larger percentage of deliveries over time.
This is a simplified chart I made up to explain what’s happening. pic.twitter.com/JyV0t6a6da
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 21, 2023
3/
The reality is more complicated. Here is what actually happened in the last 4 quarters in Europe:
The first two months accounted for only 11% of sales in Q2 2022, then 23% in Q3, and 40% in Q4.
Q1 2023 didn’t follow the trend but Q2 does with around 50% based on latest data pic.twitter.com/UQiHJ9wuqs
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 21, 2023
Troy’s concern, and what he advises against, is making the wrong, overly bullish conclusion that Tesla sales are skyrocketing due to growing sales in the first two months of the quarter. Don’t expect a similar increase year over year in the third month. In fact, expect a decline. And, similarly, if noticing a decline year over year in the third month of a quarter, don’t freak out — this is Tesla finally unwinding that dreaded delivery wave!
Related: Tesla Model Y Seeing Twice As Many Sales As Tesla Model 3 — How Will This Change?
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