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California, if it was its own country, would be the 4th largest economy in the world. It’s also one of the biggest electric vehicle (EV) markets. So, it’s long been one of the most important EV markets in the world. Let’s take a look at the top selling electric vehicle models in the state and some recent trends.
In this report, I’m going to include two charts for each topic — Q3 2024 sales and Q1–Q3 2024 sales. We’ll explore several different vehicle segments, but let’s start by looking at some overall top sellers.
The top selling automobile in the state is the Tesla Model Y, as it has been for a while. However, what’s perhaps most surprising is just how many of these are still being sold. They are everywhere on the streets of California, but they are still in a league of their own outselling all other models. The positive sign for Tesla is the Model 3, post-refresh, has risen up the charts again. While it’s 6th in the first 9 months of the year, it rose up to 2nd last quarter. The 4th quarter should be strong for both models, as it’s widely expected the Trump administration and a Republican Congress will kill the $7,500 US tax credit for EVs.
Naturally, if the Model Y is by far the top selling automobile, it’s also going to be the top selling light truck/SUV by a wide margin. Still, you can again see the 3rd quarter put a bigger gap between the Model Y and the competition.
Digging into the overall car (sedan) market a little more, the Model 3 is nicely embedded in the middle of the top 5 when it comes to the first three quarters of the year, but it won a quarterly title again at last in the 3rd quarter as well. Can it repeat that in the 4th quarter? I presume so.
Now we’ll move into specific segments where various EVs rank in the top 5.
It’s exciting to see that another EV has risen to the top of a quarterly sales chart again. The Mercedes EQB, like other Mercedes EVs, has been selling quite well in the US, and it’s now got the gold medal in the luxury subcompact SUV class, with the Audi Q4 e-tron holding onto the bronze. If the EQB can end the year strong, it could even take the #1 spot for the year as a whole. It’s tight, but it’s also unlikely seeing that in the 4th quarter it would need to approximately triple the lead it had over the Audi Q3 in the 3rd quarter. We’ll see!
I like this one a lot because, well, one reason is because it’s the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and I love this vehicle, but the other reason is that this is truly a mass-market category (compact SUVs), so it’s great to have an electric presence. The IONIQ 5 is barely in 3rd, and it is far away from the two top sellers (Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V), but I’m dreaming of a day when it has climbed up the charts to displace them. Okay, maybe that’s too much to hope for, but we’ll see.
The Tesla Model X will probably be able to hold on here for a silver medal finish in 2024 in the luxury midsize SUV class, but it did lose considerable ground in the 3rd quarter. I presume the BMW iX will be able to stay in the top 5 as well, but surely won’t be climbing (yet).
Look at that — the Rivian R1S is tearing it up in the large luxury SUV category! Congrats to Rivian. I’m very eager to see what its more affordable coming models will be able to do in California!
It’s nice to again see a climber in the EV field. The Ford Mustang Mach-E took a nice step into 2nd place in this category. While it would need a bigger win over the Toyota 4Runner in the 4th quarter to get 2nd place for the year as a whole, I think the now-veteran electric model could do it.
A dozen years after its launch, the Tesla Model S is showing that it’s still got it, easily winning the “luxury and high-end sports car” category. It’s exciting to see the BMW i5 second on the list there too, but it’s going to need to do much better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd to hold onto that spot in 2024.
Well, this is not a contest. As we’ve said for years, perhaps the Tesla Model 3 shouldn’t even be in this category. But it is, and it dominates it. A nod goes out to the BMW i4 for getting the bronze too.
Even more dramatically, the Tesla Model Y is absolutely bullying the luxury compact SUV class, and could end the year with 10 times more sales than the #2 Lexus NX. That would be wild, but very possible.
Any other highlights or thoughts from these charts and sales figures?
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