Prices for hot rolled coil in Western Europe have risen further in the past month as mills seek to regain lost revenue from the declines of 2024. As the steel industry looks to 2025, this could have significant implications for prices and partnerships.
“People are buying before year’s end. I’ve got several bids,” one market observer told MetalMiner on December 19. End users tend to seek material towards year’s end to hedge against expected price increases at the start of a new calendar year. This, in turn, pushes up demand for the product.
Mills are currently seeking €615-625 ($645-655) per metric ton on an ex-works basis, up from about the €600 ($630) seen in late November. Cold rolled coil normally carries a premium of €100 ($105) per metric ton. However, the source warned that buying is still subdued at present. “I don’t know how long the market will accept this,” they noted.
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EU Steel Industry Braces for 2025 Amid Low Price Competition
In the week starting December 9, the European Central Bank (ECB) downgraded its 2024 GDP outlook for Eurozone growth, revising predictions to 0.7% from the 0.8% predicted in September. Reports likewise noted that GDP growth predictions for 2025 are down to 1.1% from 1.3%.
The trader likewise noted that the European Central Bank’s December 12 announcement of a 25-basis-point cut on three key interest rates, plus China’s December 9 announcement of plans to adopt a less strict monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy to help spur growth, are also unlikely to push up European steel prices.
The source added that Mills in Taiwan and India are continuing to make European offers for as low €500 ($525) per metric ton on a FOB basis. There were also reports of a consignment from an Indonesian mill at €555 ($580) per metric ton CFR Europe. Finally, the source noted that transactions from Turkish mills concluded the past week at €585 ($610) per metric ton CFR Europe.
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