(Reuters) – China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an outlook released on Thursday.
Non-fossil energy supply, led by solar and wind, will likely exceed the equivalence of 3 billion metric tons of standard coal by 2045 to become the dominant energy source for more than half of primary energy consumption, Sinopec said in the 2060 outlook, which was released in Beijing.
Oil consumption is projected to peak around the middle of 2026-2030 at 800 million metric tons, or about 16 million barrels per day, partly due to faster-than-expected expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, Sinopec added.
China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is estimated to use 760 million tons, or 15.2 million bpd of oil this year.
Sinopec also forecast China’s demand for natural gas – a key bridge fuel before reaching carbon neutrality – to reach a plateau at around 2040 of 610 billion cubic meters (bcm) to account for 13% of primary energy use. This compares with 425 bcm and 9% of primary energy consumption projected for 2025.
China’s total carbon emissions from energy activities are expected to peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period at 10.1 billion metric tons, up from 10.02 billion tons in 2023.
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