London, (Oilandgaspress) –– Global oil demand growth continues to decelerate, with reported 1H24 gains of 800 kb/d y-o-y the lowest since 2020.
The chief driver of this downturn is a rapidly slowing China, where consumption contracted y-o-y for a fourth straight month in July, by 280 kb/d. Average annual gains of 900 kb/d in 2024, compared to 2.1 mb/d last year, will take demand to almost 103 mb/d. An increase of 950 kb/d in 2025 will be equally subdued.
World supply rose by 80 kb/d to 103.5 mb/d in August, with outages caused by a political dispute in Libya combined with maintenance in Norway and Kazakhstan offset by higher flows from Guyana, Brazil and elsewhere. Annual gains strengthen from 660 kb/d this year to 2.1 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC+ increases by 1.5 mb/d this year and next, while OPEC+ may fall by 810 kb/d in 2024 but rise by 540 kb/d next year if voluntary cuts stay in place.
Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 440 kb/d to 83 mb/d in 2024, and by 630 kb/d to 83.7 mb/d next year. Much weaker than expected Chinese runs in July and a further deterioration in margins continue to weigh on the forecast. Cracking margins briefly turned negative in Europe and Singapore. US Gulf Coast cracking margins are more resilient, but they have nevertheless fallen by two-thirds versus year-ago levels.
Global observed oil stocks declined by 47.1 mb in July. The drawdown was concentrated in crude oil, NGLs and feedstocks (-75.5 mb), while oil products built to their highest level since January 2021. OECD industry stocks fell counter-seasonally by 12.3 mb in July to stand 78.5 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data show continued stock declines in August.
Oil prices spiralled lower in August and early September, with ICE Brent futures plunging by about $10/bbl as floundering Chinese demand and economic headwinds heightened oversupply fears. Investor selling added to the bearish sentiment, with net speculative exchange holdings slumping to multi-year lows. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $70/bbl – the lowest level since late-2021 and down $20/bbl from April’s 2024 high. Read More
| Oil and Gas Blends | Units | Oil Price US$/bbl | Change |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | USD/bbl | $69.36 | Down |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | USD/bbl | $72.20 | Down |
| Bonny Light 13/09/24 | USD/bbl | $75.96 | Up |
| Dubai | USD/bbl | $70.92 | Up |
| Natural Gas | USD/MMBtu | $2.29 | Down |
| Murban Crude | USD/bbl | $72.43 | Down |
| OPEC basket 12/09/24 | USD/bbl | $72.42 | Up |
Porsche Penske Motorsport has claimed its second victory in this season’s FIA World Endurance Championship (WEC) with the Porsche 963. Thanks to this triumph, the works team has retaken the lead in the manufacturers’ classification. At the Fuji Speedway in Japan, Laurens Vanthoor, André Lotterer and Kévin Estre took the flag in first place after a flawless 6-hour race. The trio travels to the final in Bahrain leading the standings, which puts them in an excellent position to take home the WEC championship title. With fifth place, the Hertz Team Jota customer team has clinched an early FIA World Cup title for private Hypercar teams. Manthey PureRxcing has also been crowned early LMGT3 world champions with drivers Alex Malykhin, Joel Sturm and Klaus Bachler.
The 6-hour race on the 4.563-kilometre Fuji Speedway was held in hot summer air temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius and 40-degree asphalt temperatures. More than 65,000 spectators were treated to many spirited duels for positions. Laurens Vanthoor tackled the penultimate race of the season with the No. 6 Porsche from fifth on the grid. In the early stages, the Belgian quickly advanced to third position. After just over an hour of racing and the first round of pit stops, the 963, which Vanthoor shared with Germany’s André Lotterer and Kévin Estre from France, appeared at the top of the timesheets for the first time.. Read More
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +8 to 590 Canada -2 to 218
U.S. Rig Count is up 8 from last week to 590 with oil rigs up 5 to 488, gas rigs up 3 to 97 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5.
Canada Rig Count is down 2 from last week to 218, with oil rigs down 2 at 150, gas rigs unchanged to 67 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1..
The Worldwide Rig Count for August was 1,735, up 22 from the 1,713 counted in July 2024, and down 53, from the 1,788 counted in August 2023.
| Region | Period | Rig Count | Change |
| U.S.A | 13 September 2024 | 590 | +8 |
| Canada | 13 September 2024 | 218 | -2 |
| International | August 2024 | 931. | -3 |
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OilandGasPress Energy Newsbites and Analysis Roundup | Compiled by: OGP Staff, Segun Cole @oilandgaspress.
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