South Korea’s recent political shift marks a critical turning point for its energy future, one anchored in pragmatism and strategic economic reasoning rather than ideological preference. The country’s new government has decisively recommitted to renewable energy expansion, sustaining nuclear generation at current levels, and accelerating coal phase-outs, a trajectory that signals a clear recognition of renewable energy’s essential role in the national economic strategy. This policy reset arrives as South Korea, historically reliant on imported fossil fuels for over 90% of its energy needs, seeks urgently to mitigate both geopolitical risks and environmental pressures inherent in its heavy fossil fuel dependency.

To appreciate this shift, it helps to consider the historical context. South Korea’s economy grew impressively through the late 20th century, powered by fossil fuels that drove its heavy industries and export-driven growth model. The economic miracle was accompanied by a growing vulnerability, however, as nearly all oil, coal, and natural gas supplies had to be imported, leaving the nation continuously exposed to global energy price volatility and geopolitical instabilities. Recent developments in the global energy market, notably price spikes and supply disruptions, have sharply underscored these risks, reinforcing the wisdom of pivoting towards domestic renewable resources.

With this new policy direction, the vision emerging for South Korea is one where the economy is entirely electrified, with nearly all electricity supplied by offshore wind farms and solar photovoltaic (PV) installations. In this scenario, nuclear energy maintains a significant role, providing stable baseline generation at approximately 150 terawatt-hours per year, similar to current production levels. This balanced approach recognizes the practicality of nuclear power as a reliable baseload resource without betting excessively on new nuclear expansions, which carry significant financial and public acceptance risks.
Note, however, that nuclear being a thermal generation technology, the majority of energy is lost, meaning that South Korea’s rejected energy, while shrinking substantially, remains high.
The proposed decarbonized future energy system for South Korea fundamentally transforms the national energy flows, yet delivers approximately 924 terawatt-hours of annual energy services, the same amount currently provided by a far less efficient, combustion-based system. Today’s energy flow can be visualized clearly through the first Sankey diagram above, capturing the extensive losses inherent in combusting fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transport.
In sharp contrast, the decarbonized scenario relies on leveraging South Korea’s vast offshore wind potential, complemented by widespread rooftop solar PV installations. Offshore wind in particular emerges as a cornerstone, given the country’s advantageous maritime geography, especially in the Yellow Sea and around Jeju Island, offering stable and strong wind resources capable of producing hundreds of terawatt-hours annually. Offshore wind farms are an attractive investment opportunity for South Korea’s shipbuilding giants, such as Hyundai Heavy Industries and Doosan, companies already repositioning themselves to capitalize on global offshore renewable markets. This pivot from traditional maritime manufacturing to offshore wind turbine and infrastructure production promises substantial economic dividends, aligning perfectly with national industrial policy goals.
Solar PV plays a complementary but equally vital role. Given South Korea’s limited available land area, solar development focuses heavily on rooftops across residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, along with floating solar farms on reservoirs and nearshore platform based solar farms. In this, South Korea will follow in China’s footsteps. These pragmatic approaches to solar deployment effectively turn unused urban and coastal spaces into productive energy assets, directly aligning with the country’s dense urban landscape and technological strengths.
A key enabling factor of this renewable-heavy system is South Korea’s integration into an emerging regional grid network via high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnectors with neighboring countries, particularly China and Japan. These interconnections offer significant strategic benefits, allowing South Korea to export surplus electricity during periods of peak renewable production and import electricity to balance intermittent supply gaps. The potential 2-gigawatt HVDC submarine cable proposed between Busan and Kyushu, Japan, exemplifies the regional interconnection plans, enabling South Korea not only to stabilize its grid but to transform itself into a regional green energy hub, an idea gaining increasing traction among policy planners.
It is important to underline that this fully electrified scenario explicitly excludes hydrogen as an energy carrier, a notable decision given global and South Korean interest and hype around hydrogen solutions. The logic for excluding hydrogen is simple and compelling. Hydrogen production via electrolysis is inherently inefficient, requiring large amounts of electricity input and incurring significant energy losses in the conversion, storage, distribution, and final usage phases. These inefficiencies translate directly into higher overall system costs, undermining hydrogen’s viability compared to direct electrification solutions.
South Korea’s experiments with hydrogen buses and fuel-cell vehicles have underscored these economic and practical drawbacks, demonstrating conclusively that hydrogen’s perceived benefits are largely outweighed by its inefficiencies and cost disadvantages. For a country striving for practical and economically sustainable energy transition pathways, direct electrification is clearly superior.
Yet, some energy demands remain challenging to electrify fully, notably long-haul aviation and maritime shipping. For these sectors, sustainable biofuels offer a pragmatic and realistic solution, leveraging biomass resources including algae, crop residues, organic waste, and carefully managed imports. In this scenario, biofuels produced domestically and through secure international supply chains provide energy-dense liquid fuels required for aircraft and ships. This targeted approach ensures the limited available biomass is used strategically, meeting critical transport demands without the inefficiencies and impracticalities associated with hydrogen or synthetic electrofuels.
Environmental heating and cooling in residential, commercial, and industrial settings also undergoes a transformative shift, using advanced electric heat pumps extensively. Heat pumps deliver heating and cooling services three to five times more efficiently than traditional combustion heating, dramatically reducing the amount of electricity required. Ground-source geothermal heat pumps, particularly well-suited to South Korea’s climate and geological conditions, provide stable and efficient heating year-round. The quiet efficiency revolution driven by widespread heat pump adoption offers substantial savings in total energy demand, significantly lightening the load on national power infrastructure and enhancing overall economic resilience.
Underpinning these transformative energy shifts is the imperative of energy security. South Korea’s historical vulnerability to global energy price shocks and geopolitical instability highlights the importance of this renewable and electrification strategy. Domestic renewable resources, efficiently harnessed, drastically reduce the nation’s reliance on external energy sources, providing a fundamental improvement in national economic and geopolitical security. The massive scale-up of offshore wind and solar installations not only supports decarbonization but also fundamentally reshapes South Korea’s energy security posture, insulating its economy from future energy market shocks.
Achieving this electrified, renewable-dominated energy future will not be straightforward. Significant challenges remain in scaling renewable deployment rapidly enough, upgrading and expanding electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, securing sustainable biomass supplies, and managing public acceptance issues. The investment required for such a profound transformation is substantial, with estimates easily running into hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming decades. Yet, the economic opportunities presented by this transition—in manufacturing, technology development, and infrastructure investment—are equally vast, promising a productive and profitable economic future for South Korea.
Looking ahead, South Korea’s new government has clearly set its sights on a future defined by pragmatic renewable energy development, strategic nuclear energy maintenance, and decisive coal phase-out. Hydrogen hype hasn’t been avoided yet, so policymakers are unlikely to fully focus investment and policy frameworks around technologies and solutions with proven economic and technical viability. The proposed scenario is ambitious yet achievable, positioning South Korea as a leading global example of how thoughtful, strategic energy transition planning can deliver economic growth, environmental sustainability, and enhanced national security.

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