Redefining Energy 2025 Predictions: Transportation, Energy, Electricity, & Investments – CleanTechnica

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For years, Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid have had an annual predictions episode, where they rank the previous year’s predictions and make new ones. Last year I joined them and made a couple of predictions of my own, and now the annual episode is out. Here it is with a lightly edited transcript. You’ll have to imagine the laughter if you only read the transcript.

Laurent Segalen (LS): Happy New Year, Gerard.

Gerard Reid (GR): Happy New Year my friend. Good to see you.

LS: And of course we have for our predictions Michael Barnard. Happy New Year, Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Happy New Year to both of you.

GR: Yeah, looking forward to this.

LS: Well, first as usual we take our six predictions from last year and see who fared the best and who totally missed it. Probably I’m going to jump right in. The first prediction is Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China. So who did this one?

MB: That was me.

LS: Can you elaborate a bit?

MB: I think I did pretty well on this one. One of the things I had thought it was going to do was to put Peugeot and Renault [not a Stellantis brand, my mistake] brands and the like stable of brands on Chinese-made EVs and stop pretending to be a manufacturer. What it actually did was establish a joint venture with Leap Motor and it’s actually importing Leap Motor branded vehicles into Europe.

The second thing it’s doing is establish a joint venture with CATL and it’s going to build a battery gigafactory in northeastern Spain where it has a bunch of plants and about a million people in the ecosystem. Unlike Northvolt’s location and 80% decarbonized electricity with Spain’s industrial policy which is actually reducing the cost of industrial electricity as well. So it actually has many more other conditions for success than Northvolt did.

So I’m feeling pretty comfortable that I got it close. Didn’t think Tavares was going to go though.

GR: I am totally with you.

LS: Yeah. You also should have predicted that the shares of Stellantis lost 40% last year. So I would have been able to short them.

MB: That’s not my skill set.

GR: If I’m going to go mark out a five, I’m going to give him a four out of five, because he definitely got it and even the share price falling and stuff like that, it’s all in relation to the fact that hey, basically they have to go and change their business model and so yeah, they’re making progress.

LS: Okay, so I give you three out of five because it’s not just Stellantis. If you look at the results of the German main automakers, Volkswagen profits went down last year by 64%, Audi 91%, BMW 84%, and Mercedes Benz 54%. So it’s the all Western OEM went down. Well, it’s not a crisis, it’s an implosion. It’s not just Stellantis, it’s pretty much everybody.

MB: But I’m going to defend myself. I didn’t make a prediction about implosion. I made a prediction about bringing Chinese manufactured EVs into Europe.

LS: Okay, duly noted, but duly ignored. So you end up 7 out of 10 on this one.

Next prediction, politics. Election in 2024 could derail the energy transition. That’s me. And I’m pretty happy with my prediction considering the fact that Trump has been elected and he has talked about dismantling most of the pro-green policies of Biden. And generally speaking, what we’ve seen is that there’s much more emphasis on security than on green. So I feel pretty good about my prediction. What’s your opinion, guys?

GR: I think maybe if you’re talking about 2025, you’re right. But let’s be really clear. 2024 was a record year in terms of installing everything renewable, whether it’s solar, wind, EVs in the United States, and actually across the rest of the world. So there was no derailment whatsoever of the energy transition in 2024. So if I could give you a zero out of five, I would, but because it’s Christmas, I’m going for a one.

MB: I’m feeling slightly more charitable because my comment last year was no, the elections will have impacts the following years, not next year. And so I am with Gerard on the timing. The big thing that I think is going to happen is that offshore wind in the United States is dead for another five years.

LS: Yeah.

MB: Beyond that, the United States will be slowed by this, but the rest of the world is just going to buy more and more Chinese products. I’m going to give you a two because you’re right in general, but you’re not right on the timing.

GR: Yeah, listen, because I’m feeling charitable and you know, it’s January and all this type of stuff, be nice to people, I’m going to raise it to a 2 as well.

LS: Oh, that is so nice of you. Okay, next, Gerard.

GR: Oversupply of everything energy related, and that’s what we’ve seen. And that starts with fossil fuels, oil prices down, gas prices down. If you look in the renewables area, cost of EVs have collapsed, cost of batteries have collapsed, cost of solar has gone down, even wind has gone down. So yeah, I expect I should be getting a five out of this.

LS: Yeah. But Gerard, have you seen the price of the TTF in Europe? Started the year at $7 per MBT, now it’s at 14.

GR: There’s exceptions to everything.

LS: Yeah, there’s exception to a five out of five. That’s why I give you a four out of five.

MB: I was actually feeling like you were just making an observation a year ago and so I wasn’t going to rank you very high on this except for the sheer magnitude of it. The collapse in battery prices down to under $50 per kilowatt hour. I’m a battery optimist and I had no expectation that we would hit that. The massive surge in solar in Pakistan because of the glut with solar panels. No expectation of that. I continue to be surprised and amazed. So while it’s just an observation you made and you didn’t actually make observations about the implications of it, which is what a real prediction would do, which I’ll demonstrate later, I’m going to give you four out of five.

GR: Thank you very much.

LS: Okay, fourth prediction, stronger top-down governance of transmission and interconnection, Michael.

MB: That was in the EU specifically.

LS: Correct.

MB: I’m just going to say I’m feeling pretty strong about this one too. In May of 2024, the 27-member state energy ministers that make up the Transport, Telecoms, and Energy Council of the EU agreed to the following, and I quote, “underlines the need for a holistic, long term, coordinated, improved and integrated electricity grid infrastructure planning at European level.” That’s the people who make the decisions saying they need top-down planning of grid and they need EU-level coordination, not the current boys’ club of utilities. So I’m feeling that this one I knocked out of the park.

GR: I’m going to add one little bit to support you Michael. He didn’t talk about the US, which is, in the US there also has been really strong moves towards top-down governance and actually it’s partially driven by energy security, but it’s really been driven by data center growth and stuff like that, you know. So I’m definitely with you. Listen, if I could give you a 5.5 out of 5 I would, but I’m not allowed so I’m just going to give you a five out of five.

MB: Thank you so much.

LS: So what 5.5?

GR: Five out of five? I can’t give a 5.5. I’m going to give him a five out of five.

LS: Okay, I write this down. Five out of. Do you realize that if you give him a five out of five and I played smart and I give him also a five out of five, you lose because I’m already last as usual. You’re playing against your house. You sure 5 out of 5?

GR: Bit stupid on that, yeah. But no, I think he was fair enough and he did it. I have to be fair.

LS: Okay, I give him also 5 out of 5.

MB: I’m just going to say in my defense, I was completely shocked to be right.

LS: Okay. Fifth one, the return of clean energy shares.

And if I look at the major indices like S&P Global Clean Energy Index, it’s down 25% last year. So on one hand, I got it totally wrong. Now if I expand what clean energy is and I integrate what I would call the periphery, which means people are providing equipment, and then that would include Siemens Energy or GE Vernova, those shares went ballistic. Up. Yes. The core did not perform, but the periphery went extremely well. So I ask for your mercifulness.

GR: Well, listen, I just have one question, friend. If you can ask it, then I’ll give you a bonus point. Vestas, biggest turbine manufacturer in the world. How did their share price perform last year?

LS: Vestas. Yes. Minus 53% into a 24.

GR: Okay, well, listen, for getting it right, I’m going to give you a mercy mark and I’m going to give you two out of five.

MB: I’ve just got to say I’m actually somewhat pleased because I’m in portfolio rebalancing time. I’m a buy and hold. I’m not a trader. And right now, my God, is it a buyer’s market? If you have cash, now is the time to get in because, Laurent, you’re off on timing again. But they’re starting to fix the market. Mechanisms have made it difficult for some of these firms to make a profit. They’re starting to fix some of the auctions and stuff like that. But of course there is the other problem, which is that Gerard was wrong again by claiming that Vestas is the world’s largest.

GR: Right.

MB: Used to be.

GR: Used to be. You’re absolutely right.

MB: And so I’m once again going to give you a two out of five because you’re right in the direction, wrong in the timing offset.

LS: Only lost 8% last year.

MB: Then of course, there’s Northvolt.

LS: Yeah.

GR: We won’t talk about that. They tried to IPO that. My God.

LS: Okay, guys, so that’s another two out of five. Okay, So I already have my final score. Okay, we’ll talk about it later. Last but not least prediction of last year, Gerard. China will gain massive international market in wind and EVs. Yeah. Wow. Wow, wow.

GR: Well, first and foremost, we have seen it in the wind space. So they’re not just selling into their own market, they’re now exporting. And actually they’re very close to coming into continental Europe as well, which is a big, big step forward as well. In terms of EVs. Sorry to say that their the kings of EVs and what you’ve seen is Chinese manufacturers going everywhere across the world. So yeah, I’m quite happy with my prediction there that they would gain international market share in wind and EVs, though.

LS: 80% of their car exports are ICE.

GR: Really?

LS: Yeah. You need to follow a real expert like Michael Dunne who really knows what he’s talking about. So I give you a four out of five, Gerard.

MB: My observation last year was once again, Gerard is making an observation, not a prediction. So I can’t give you much because the implications of the observation is a prediction. We talked about Vesta’s share price being way off and that’s in large part because they’re losing business. We talked about the European OEMs for car manufacturers losing lots and lots of business. I’ll be talking a bit more about that in a couple of spaces. But those are predictions saying that China is going to dominate areas where it is already dominating and is shipping everywhere except Europe, which is a retrograde market globally, is just an observation. So I’m only going to give you a three out of five.

GR: Oh, I tell you what, you’re going to have trouble next year, my friend. I’m telling you, not going to forget this.

LS: So I’ve got the final results. Okay. As usual, I’m last with 8 out of 20. The next one has 15 out of 20 and the first has 17 out of 20. And the winner is MB.

MB: I now take my Nostradamus 2024 trophy and I accept it with all humility and also tremendous surprise. I did not expect to be so right. These were aspirational hopes.

GR: I want to hear your 2025 predictions and they better not be vague.

MB: They aren’t.

LS: So prediction number one, Michael.

MB: My first prediction is that oil production will decline in the United states in the first year of the Trump presidency.

Shale’s into 4.0 right now. What that means, it’s a consolidation play by global majors who have shale sites that they can develop. Shale only lasts for three years before seeing significant declines. So it is actually a technology response to demand at market prices. But the shale oil sites, they’ve already taken the highest profit ones. We’re now seeing the more marginal sites that cost more to develop and have lower production. The combination of China’s drop in significant demand for petroleum, especially over the coming years, is precursored by, for example, the collapse of the diesel engine market in China where LNG engines for the longest range vehicles are going and everything else is going electric.

Basically anything that China can’t electrify, it’s putting LNG in and it’s getting that LNG from the ‘stans. So the biggest export market in the world for petroleum is declining and so the price of oil is going to decline. What that means is the shale oil sites will no longer be profitable and the global majors that own them won’t develop them.

LS: But I will say that as you know, they opened the Matterhorn gas pipeline from West Texas to the main hubs, which means that the Waha hub, which used to be discounted to the Henry hub, now is rebalancing. So as they’re going to make more money on gas, they’re going to pump more oil. That’s my counter argument.

MB: We shall see in a year. What do you think, Gerard?

GR: I think this is very close to my second prediction. So I maybe I go to the second prediction and then I’ll sort of answer your question with it.

LS: Right, Gerard, your turn.

GR: So my prediction is that oil prices in 2025 will hit $40.

And Michael, it’s a little bit going on to what you’re saying there as well. I agree with you that we’ve seen probably peak oil demand in China for a start. But secondly, we’ve just got overproduction in OPEC. You’ve got 5 million extra barrels a day. And I also think that we’re going to see in the Ukrainian situation, we’re going to see some form of peace solution there. And that means it could have another 1 million barrels of Russian oil to come on the market and I think that’s going to just push prices down. So that’s my specific prediction, $40 oil 2025.

LS: Now when you say 40, it’s going touch 40 for one second.

GR: I mean, come on.

LS: Or it’s an average.

GR: Touch, touch.

MB: I’d just like to congratulate you on finally saying something that is a specific prediction.

LS: My first prediction is, and it’s very close to yours, is the following. Geopolitics, stress, supply chains, and energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world.

And let me explain. There are two troublemakers in the world, geopolitics, Russia and Iran, and I think they are exhausted after years of funding wars and chaos. They are burning through their fossil fuel wealth with only destruction to show for it, so something’s going to give. So I think that one of the two regimes are going to go down, which means that whoever is going to come after is going to flood the market. You cannot have countries run by guys in their 70s and 80s in pursuit of imperial or theocratic dreams. But on the other hand, the supply chains are extremely clobbered. You have four years lead time for a new gas turbine.

So if we have a huge demand of energy, it’s going to be through innovation and renewables. So sorry it’s a bit sophisticated, but that’s my prediction.

GR: Can I just make one comment? I like what you said, Laurent, and I hope you’re right. There’s one little issue with the three first predictions we’ve come up with and that’s geopolitics, because there is still geopolitics risk and if what you say doesn’t happen, it could go in the other direction. And actually we actually have prices going up, we have US shale going up, et cetera. We hope not, but I just want to just throw that in.

MB: I’m going to lean into this one as well. I like what you’re saying. I agree that structurally Iran and Russia are incredibly fragile states and I hope their dissolution is relatively non destructive and doesn’t spill over their borders too much. I remember the Syrian refugee crisis of 2014 quite clearly, even though I wasn’t on the beaches of the Mediterranean counting bodies. And it’s the kind of thing that can cause those kinds of floods of refugees which is heavily destabilizing geopolitically. That’s a downer.

LS: It’s a total downer. So I hope the next predictions are going to be a bit more uplifting. Michael, you’re next.

MB: In the spirit of being uplifting, my second prediction is a bloodbath in hydrogen for any energy and transportation in 2025.

I’m going to start with just a little interesting thing. It’s actually illegal to call hydrogen vehicles zero emission in Canada. Bill C59 was introduced in the summertime and it required truth in advertising and it allowed private organizations to bring charges against people who were bringing misleading greenwashing charges. As a result, all of Canada’s oil and gas lobby groups and majors took all their social media down and took all their claims off their websites. But hydrogen vehicles aren’t zero carbon, you can’t make them zero carbon well-to-wheel. That’s going to be interesting to play out. But at least one of Plug Power, Fuel Cell Energy, or Ballard will finally disappear.

They’re trading at pennies on the dollar of their 2021 peak, which was a mini blip compared to their 2000 massive peak. At least one major bus company, Western bus manufacturer, will abandon hydrogen fuel cell buses. Maybe Solaris. Norway will finally stop trying to build hydrogen ferries and replace the one operational one which has double the emissions of a diesel ferry, 40 times the emissions of a battery-electric ferry that operates on the same route, operates slower, and costs 10 times as much to fuel. And one of the major truck and bus firms that’s trying to do both hydrogen and batteries is going to follow Quantron into bankruptcy. Maybe Van Hool [already bankrupt, so my mistake] in Europe or New Flyer in North America. Is that precise enough for you?

GR: I love it. I love it. And I’ll go along with you on that. I love it. Yeah, bring it on.

LS: Gerard, your next prediction.

GR: My second prediction is around installations of everything clean. We’re going to see record installations of heat pumps Globally, batteries globally, EVs, solar panels, ET cetera.

And I’ll give you an idea just in terms of numbers because I need to be precise because otherwise Michael will get me in trouble. Right. We’ll install this year 700 gigawatts of solar. And I predict that we will install 100 gigawatts of batteries in terms of electric cars. I’m going to put a big number out there and I think we’re going for 20 million.

MB: There you go.

GR: That’s my last one.

LS: It’s well noted, 20 million EVs, which would be great. And you said 100 gigawatts of batteries. Yeah, yeah, no problem. Yeah.

GR: 100 gigawatt, 200 gigawatt-hours of batteries globally. I’d say 700 gigawatts of solar.

LS: Yeah. But wind, if you look at the major, is going to be more difficult. And I agree with Michael that offshore wind in the US is toast.

GR: With you on that.

MB: And I’m just pleased once again, Gerard, that you’re learning what a prediction is. I mean, how many years have you guys been doing this? And I agree with your predictions and I think what we’ll see is the global south,  we’re going to see vastly more penetration there as we saw this year in Pakistan and others. Just the sheer drop of costs. It’s going to be stunning to watch.

LS: Okay, so my last prediction start with anniversary. It was exactly five years ago that we had the famous letter from Larry Fink Blackrock, who said Blackrock put climate at the center of a $7 trillion strategy. Fail to act on climate and you’re fired. Pension fund says and the most great one, everything is ESG. Now that was exactly five years ago.

And what I can predict is that 2025, it’s the disappearance of ESG Climate Carbon in any financial product. Guys, you’re stunned.

MB: It is a bold claim. Any financial product?

LS: Maybe you still have 5%, but the new financial product named ESG Climate Net Zero Carbon, blah blah. You had a moment five years ago where overnight Morningstar Ray Christian 200 fund as ESG and I think the label is going to disappear as fast as it appeared.

MB: And I agree with that clarification. Well, what I will say is that doesn’t mean that ESG is disappearing and that doesn’t mean people investing in the space are going to lose money. There’s a tremendous amount of creation of good stuff like Neste is vastly undervalued for a company which is going to be a significant growth company over the next 20 years. So if you’re considering buy and hold, there’s some amazing deals, as I said earlier.

LS: Yeah, certainly. But the money car ESG is just going to vanish.

GR: I think it’s not that easy to do it overnight, Laurent, just because you’ve got a bureaucracy in place in and around ESG. But I’m definitely living in hope that it does disappear in 2025 because I think it in a lot of ways is not helping.

LS: A side prediction. A side prediction is carbon capture also is going to wane because can you imagine there were 500 carbon and capture lobbyists at COP 29. And there was the famous interview of Darren Woods, the CEO of ExxonMobil. And he says, and I quote, “CCS doesn’t work.”

MB: I have to give the fossil fuel industry credit for this. They really know how to reuse and recycle. Every five to 10 years you get another bubble of carbon capture and hydrogen for energy and clean diesel and it’s just recycling the same nonsense they pedaled previously. It’s actually quite efficient and effective. I think we should applaud them for their circularity.

LS: The amount of money they can extract from taxpayers is absolutely staggering. But I’m with you. I’m very interested by your prediction. And if oil touches $40 like Gerard says, I can tell you that there’s going to be some consolidation and one company is pretty ripe for being taken over, it’s BP. They’re not going to survive at that price.

MB: Goes down one of my potential sideline predictions. I was thinking, which company would I predict would disappear? Which one of the major oil majors? And I chose not to go that way.

GR: By the way, guys, I think that’s one prediction we all agree on. I don’t think it will survive either.

LS: Well, gentlemen, that’s it. We’ve done our six predictions for the year, which I’m going to try to summarize. Number one, oil production down in the U.S. Number two, oil price will eat $40 per barrel into a 25. Number three, geopolitics stress, supply chain, and energy bonanza would bring a more innovative and better world. Number four, a bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation sector. Number five, record installation of solar, 700 gigawatt batteries, 200 gigawatt-hours and EVs, 20 million. And the last one, no ESG, climate, or carbon in any financial product, Gentlemen, so it was a pleasure predicting the future with you. I’m sorry I lose every year. I lose all the time.

GR: Things can only get better.

LS: Yeah, that’s what we say every year.

MB: As the new defending champion, all I can say is I’m surprised that I’m the defending champion. And I’ll be surprised if I actually manage to defend my crown.

GR: You have no chance this year. I’m telling you. I’m just telling you now, behavior, no chance.

LS: I will beat up the oil market like you have no idea. So you just can’t win on this one because, Gerard, this is a prediction of 5 or 0. You can’t be half right on this one.

GR: Yeah, I know. That’s true. That’s true, that’s true.

LS: Okay. And if we reach 19.9 million EVs and not 20. Same zero. Guys, great being with you. We thank our listeners. Be ready for a great year. We love you all.

MB: Happy New Year, everyone. The future’s so bright, we’ve got to wear shades.

GR: Well said, well said. Good luck, everybody.