London, 22 November 2023, (Oilandgaspress) – Total new-vehicle sales for November 2023, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,236,000 units, a 10.2% increase from November 2022, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. November 2023 has 25 selling days, the same as November 2022.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.5 million units, up 1.4 million units from November 2022.
The Retail Sales Forecast
New-vehicle retail sales for November 2023 are expected to increase when compared with November 2022. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,041,000 units, a 13.0% increase from November 2022.
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:
“November results indicate a robust performance with double-digit year-over-year sales growth and record consumer expenditures for the month. The consumer expenditure record was due to strong sales growth, which outweighed a 1.9% decline in transaction prices.
“Sales growth is being enabled by improving vehicle availability. Despite the nearly six-week UAW work stoppage, retail inventory levels in November are expected to finish around 1.6 million units, a 7.5% increase from last month and 43.7% increase compared with November 2022, but still over 40% below pre-pandemic levels.
“However, as inventory and sales volumes improve, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining to $45,332, down $873—or 1.9%—from November 2022. However, even with the decline in average transaction prices, consumers are on track to spend nearly $44.5 billion on new vehicles this month—the highest on record for the month of November and 9.5% higher than November 2022.”
Sales to fleet customers are still expected to be relatively elevated given the level of inventory, however, fleet sales are projected to decrease 2.4% from November 2022.
“The increase in new-vehicle supply and higher interest rates are resulting in falling per unit dealer profits, but those profits continue to exceed pre-pandemic levels. The total retailer profit per unit—which includes grosses, finance and insurance income—is expected to be $3,002 in November. While this is 28.7% lower than a year ago, it is still more than double the amount in November 2019. The primary factor behind the profit decline is the reduced number of vehicles selling above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). This month, only 21.4% of new vehicles are projected to be sold above MSRP, which is down from 37.1% in November 2022.”
Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.9 billion, down 20.5% from November 2022, but up 83.9% from November 2019.
The Details
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in November is expected to reach $45,332, down $873 from November 2022. The previous high for any month—$47,362—was set in December 2022.
- Average incentive spending per unit is expected to reach $2,247, up from $1,089 in November 2022. Spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to increase to 4.6%, up 2.3 percentage points from November 2022.
- Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs is expected to be $2,391, up $1,279 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $1,672, up $668 from a year ago.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $44.5 billion on new vehicles, up $3.9 billion from November 2022.
- Truck/SUVs are on pace to account for 79% of new-vehicle retail sales this month.
- Fleet sales are expected to total 194,969 units, down 2.4% from November 2022 on a selling day adjusted basis. Fleet volume is expected to account for 15.8% of total light-vehicle sales, down from 17.8% a year ago.
- Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to increase to 7.3%, 95 basis points higher than a year ago.
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