Kinder Morgan Announces 2024 Financial Expectations

December 5, 2023

$1.15 dividend per share; $1.21 net income attributable to KMI per share; and $8 billion Adjusted EBITDA

HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) today announced its preliminary 2024 financial projections. “We expect 5% growth across the board in 2024 in Adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow (DCF) and DCF per share due to growth projects in all our business segments, but most prominently in Natural Gas Pipelines and Energy Transition Ventures, as well as from contract rate escalations in our Products Pipelines and Terminals business segments,” said Kim Dang, KMI Chief Executive Officer. “It is important to note that the company’s budget does not include the recently announced acquisition of NextEra Energy Partners’ STX Midstream assets which we expect would have a positive impact on the metrics above.

“We are projecting an annualized dividend of $1.15 in 2024, constituting the 7^th year in a row in which we have increased our dividend. No share repurchases are assumed in the budget, but we will have substantial capacity to transact opportunistically as our 2024 Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio is forecast to be 3.8 times, far below our long-term target of 4.5 times,” Dang concluded.

“We anticipate generating net income attributable to KMI per share of $1.21, up 11% compared to our year-end 2023 forecast of $1.09 per share, with Adjusted EBITDA up 5% from 2023 at $8 billion, compared to the 2023 forecast of $7.6 billion, and DCF of $5 billion and DCF per share of $2.21, both up 5% from our 2023 forecast. Expected growth in DCF and DCF per share would have been higher if not for increased sustaining capex driven by expanded regulatory requirements,” said KMI President Tom Martin.

“We expect to continue benefiting from strong natural gas market fundamentals driving growth on our existing natural gas transportation, storage, and gathering and processing assets as well as expansion opportunities. In addition, we anticipate benefitting from increased rates in our refined products businesses, demand for renewable diesel and renewable diesel feedstocks, and demand for renewable natural gas,” Martin concluded.

Below is a summary of KMI’s expectations for 2024:

Generate $1.21 of net income attributable to KMI per share, up 11% versus our current 2023 forecast of $1.09.
Generate $2.21 DCF per share, up 5% from the current forecast for 2023.
Generate $8.0 billion of Adjusted EBITDA, up 5% from the 2023 forecast.
Invest $2.3 billion in discretionary capital expenditures including expansion projects and contributions to joint ventures.
Return additional value to shareholders in 2024 through an anticipated $1.15 per share dividend (annualized).
End 2024 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8 times, well below our long-term target of approximately 4.5 times.
The expected $2.21 of DCF per share and the 3.8 times leverage metric do not reflect the impact of possible opportunistic share repurchases, which KMI will have substantial capacity to transact on.
The guidance does not include the acquisition of NextEra Energy Partners’ STX Midstream assets. KMI has filed for approval pursuant to Hart-Scott-Rodino and expects to close in the first quarter of 2024.

This press release includes DCF, in the aggregate and per share, Adjusted EBITDA and Net Debt, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. For descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.

KMI’s expectations assume interest expense flat to 2023, consistent with the forward curve, and average annual prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas of $82 per barrel and $3.50 per MMBtu, respectively, consistent with forward pricing during the budget process. The vast majority of cash generated by KMI is fee-based and therefore is not directly exposed to commodity prices. The primary area where KMI has commodity price sensitivity is in its CO₂ segment, where KMI hedges the majority of its next 12 months of oil production to minimize this sensitivity. For 2024, the company estimates that every $1 per barrel change in the average WTI crude oil price impacts DCF by approximately $8 million and each $0.10 per MMBtu change in the price of natural gas impacts DCF by approximately $1 million.

The KMI board of directors has preliminarily reviewed the 2024 budget and will take formal action on it at the January board meeting. Management will discuss the budget in detail during the company’s annual investor day conference on January 24, 2024, in Houston, Texas. The 2024 budget will be the standard by which KMI measures its performance next year and will be a factor in determining employee compensation. Kinder Morgan remains committed to transparency and will continue to publish its budget on the company’s website as presented at the investor day conference. An investor presentation updated with a brief overview of the 2024 budget has been posted to the Investor Relations page of KMI’s website.

About Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. Access to reliable, affordable energy is a critical component for improving lives around the world. We are committed to providing energy transportation and storage services in a safe, efficient, and environmentally responsible manner for the benefit of people, communities and businesses we serve. We have an interest in or operate approximately 82,000 miles of pipelines, 140 terminals, 700 billion cubic feet of working natural gas storage capacity and have renewable natural gas generation capacity of approximately 5.4 Bcf per year with an additional 1.5 Bcf in development. Our pipelines transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2, renewable fuels and other products, and our terminals store and handle various commodities including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, chemicals, metals, petroleum coke, and ethanol and other renewable fuels and feedstocks. Learn more about our work advancing energy solutions on the lower carbon initiatives page at www.kindermorgan.com.

Important Information Relating to Forward-Looking Statements

This news release includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Generally, the words “expects,” “believes,” anticipates,” “plans,” “will,” “shall,” “estimates,” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature. Forward-looking statements in this news release include express or implied statements pertaining to KMI’s expectations for 2023 and 2024, including expected net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc., DCF (in each case in the aggregate and per share), Adjusted EBITDA, Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratios, anticipated dividends, sustaining and discretionary capital expenditures, KMI’s financing and capital allocation strategy, and the proposed acquisition of STX Midstream, including the parties’ ability to satisfy customary conditions to closing (such as with respect to Hart-Scott-Rodino and any other required regulatory approvals) and the anticipated timing and benefits to KMI’s business and stockholders of the transaction. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and are based on the beliefs and assumptions of management, based on information currently available to them. Although KMI believes that these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance as to when or if any such forward-looking statements will materialize nor their ultimate impact on our operations or financial condition. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward-looking statements include: the timing and extent of changes in the supply of and demand for the products we transport and handle; commodity prices; and the other risks and uncertainties described in KMI’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2022 (under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” and elsewhere) and its subsequent reports, which are available through the SEC’s EDGAR system at www.sec.gov and on our website at ir.kindermorgan.com. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made, and except to the extent required by law, KMI undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement because of new information, future events or other factors. Because of these risks and uncertainties, readers should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Our non-GAAP financial measures described further below should not be considered alternatives to GAAP net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. or other GAAP measures and have important limitations as analytical tools. Our computations of these non-GAAP financial measures may differ from similarly titled measures used by others. You should not consider these non-GAAP financial measures in isolation or as substitutes for an analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Management compensates for the limitations of our consolidated non-GAAP financial measures by reviewing our comparable GAAP measures identified in the descriptions of consolidated non-GAAP measures below, understanding the differences between the measures and taking this information into account in its analysis and its decision-making processes.

Certain Items, as adjustments used to calculate our non-GAAP financial measures, are items that are required by GAAP to be reflected in net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc., but typically either (1) do not have a cash impact (for example, unsettled commodity hedges and asset impairments), or (2) by their nature are separately identifiable from our normal business operations and in most cases are likely to occur only sporadically (for example, certain legal settlements, enactment of new tax legislation and casualty losses). We also include adjustments related to joint ventures (see “Amounts from Joint Ventures” below).

DCF is calculated by adjusting net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. for Certain Items, and further by DD&A, amortization of excess cost of equity investments, income tax expense, cash taxes, sustaining capital expenditures and other items. We also include amounts from joint ventures for income taxes, DD&A and sustaining capital expenditures (see “Amounts from Joint Ventures” below). DCF is a significant performance measure used by management, investors and other external users of our financial statements to evaluate our performance and to measure and estimate the ability of our assets to generate economic earnings after paying interest expense, paying cash taxes and expending sustaining capital. DCF provides additional insight into the specific costs associated with our assets in the current period and facilitates period-to-period comparisons of our performance from ongoing business activities. DCF is also used by us, investors, and other external users to compare the performance of companies across our industry. DCF per share serves as the primary financial performance target for purposes of annual bonuses under our annual incentive compensation program and for performance-based vesting of equity compensation grants under our long-term incentive compensation program. DCF should not be used as an alternative to net cash provided by operating activities computed under GAAP. We believe the GAAP measure most directly comparable to DCF is net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. DCF per share is DCF divided by average outstanding shares, including restricted stock awards that participate in dividends.

Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by adjusting net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. before interest expense, income taxes, DD&A, and amortization of excess cost of equity investments (EBITDA) for Certain Items. We also include amounts from joint ventures for income taxes and DD&A (see “Amounts from Joint Ventures” below). Adjusted EBITDA (on a rolling 12-months basis) is used by management, investors and other external users, in conjunction with our Net Debt (as described further below), to evaluate our leverage. Management and external users also use Adjusted EBITDA as an important metric to compare the valuations of companies across our industry. Our ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA is used as a supplemental performance target for purposes of our annual incentive compensation program. We believe the GAAP measure most directly comparable to Adjusted EBITDA is net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Net Debt is calculated by subtracting from debt (1) cash and cash equivalents, (2) debt fair value adjustments, and (3) the foreign exchange impact on Euro-denominated bonds for which we have entered into currency swaps. Net Debt, on its own and in conjunction with our Adjusted EBITDA (on a rolling 12-months basis) as part of a ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA, is a non-GAAP financial measure that is used by management, investors, and other external users of our financial information to evaluate our leverage. Our ratio of Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA is also used as a supplemental performance target for purposes of our annual incentive compensation program. We believe the most comparable measure to Net Debt is total debt. 2024 budgeted Net Debt is calculated as budgeted total debt of $30.2 billion, less budgeted cash and cash equivalents of $0.1 billion; 2024 budgeted Net Debt does not include budgeted debt fair value adjustments or the budgeted foreign exchange impact on our Euro denominated debt, as these amounts are impractical to predict and are expected to be immaterial.

Amounts from Joint Ventures – Certain Items, DCF and Adjusted EBITDA reflect amounts from unconsolidated joint ventures (JVs) and consolidated JVs utilizing the same recognition and measurement methods used to record “Earnings from equity investments” and “Noncontrolling interests,” respectively. The calculations of DCF and Adjusted EBITDA related to our unconsolidated and consolidated JVs include the same items (DD&A and income tax expense, and for DCF only, also cash taxes and sustaining capital expenditures) with respect to the JVs as those included in the calculations of DCF and Adjusted EBITDA for our wholly-owned consolidated subsidiaries; further, we remove the portion of these adjustments attributable to non-controlling interests. Although these amounts related to our unconsolidated JVs are included in the calculations of DCF and Adjusted EBITDA, such inclusion should not be understood to imply that we have control over the operations and resulting revenues, expenses, or cash flows of such unconsolidated JVs.

Table 1
Kinder Morgan, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Reconciliation of Projected Net Income Attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. to Projected DCF
(In billions, unaudited)
	2023 Forecast			2024 Budget
Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP)	$	2.5		$	2.7
Total Certain Items (1)		—		—
DD&A and amortization of excess cost of equity investments		2.3		2.4
Income tax expense (2)		0.7		0.8
Cash taxes (1)		—		—
Sustaining capital expenditures		(0.8	)	(1.0		)
Amounts from joint ventures
Unconsolidated JV DD&A		0.3		0.3
Remove consolidated JV partners’ DD&A		(0.1	)	(0.1		)
Unconsolidated JV income tax expense (3)		0.1		0.1
Unconsolidated JV cash taxes (3)		(0.1	)	(0.1		)
Unconsolidated JV sustaining capital expenditures		(0.2	)	(0.2		)
Remove consolidated JV partners’ sustaining capital expenditures (1)		—		—
Other items (4)		—		0.1
DCF	$	4.7		$	5.0

Table 2
Kinder Morgan, Inc. and Subsidiaries
Reconciliation of Projected Net Income Attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. to Projected Adjusted EBITDA
(In billions, unaudited)
	2023 Forecast			2024 Budget
Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan, Inc. (GAAP)	$	2.5		$	2.7
Total Certain Items (1)		—		—
DD&A and amortization of excess cost of equity investments		2.3		2.4
Income tax expense (2)		0.7		0.8
Interest, net (2)		1.8		1.8
Amounts from joint ventures
Unconsolidated JV DD&A		0.3		0.3
Remove consolidated JV partners’ DD&A		(0.1	)	(0.1		)
Unconsolidated JV income tax expense (3)		0.1		0.1
Adjusted EBITDA	$	7.6		$	8.0

Notes
(1)	Aggregate adjustments are currently estimated to be less than $100 million.
(2)	Amounts are adjusted for Certain Items.
(3)	Includes the tax provision on Certain Items recognized by the investees that are taxable entities associated with our Citrus, NGPL and Products (SE) Pipe Line equity investments.
(4)	Includes non-cash pension expense, non-cash compensation associated with our restricted stock program and pension contributions.