Calgary, Alberta–(Newsfile Corp. – March 28, 2024) – Journey Energy Inc. (TSX: JOY) (OTCQX: JRNGF) (“Journey” or the “Company“) is pleased to provide updated guidance for 2024 with a focus on advancing its power business, and improving long-term sustainability.
2024 CAPITAL PROGRAM
Upon closing the previously announced convertible debenture financing on March 20, 2024, Journey used a portion of the net proceeds of $36.6 million to retire the remaining vendor-take-back debt of $11.0 million and has also repaid AIMCo $12.7 million of its term debt. This will create interest cost savings in 2024 as the new debt carries a lower average interest rate than the repaid debt.
With enhanced liquidity for 2024, Journey now forecasts reducing leverage by over $20 million while maintaining production and advancing the development of two new power facilities. Journey today announces that it has expanded its capital program by $10 million to $51 million. Of the $51 million of total capital spending in 2024, $16 million is related to drilling and completions, half of which was already spent in the first quarter. Journey drilled 4.0 wells (2.9 net) in Medicine Hat in the first quarter, and also completed the two Poplar Creek wells drilled in the fourth quarter of 2023. Production from these wells is exceeding internal projections. Journey is planning to expand its exploration and development program with additional drilling in the second half of 2024, and will provide further detail on this expansion in due course.
In addition to the drilling program Journey is planning to increase capital spending for facilities, waterflood and polymer flood to $9 million. This increase in spending includes facility debottlenecking in Cherhill; expanding the polymer flood in Medicine Hat to new, unflooded areas; and will also include a waterflood expansion in Matziwin. These projects are designed to increase recovery from well defined oil pools and also help flatten Journey’s already low decline rates.
Journey is maintaining its previously planned expenditures of $17 million, which include both the power facility currently under construction in Gilby, as well as the continued development of the Mazeppa project. Journey is preparing for an October 1 start up in Gilby but has not included any additional power revenue for 2024 into the current guidance. Journey is still awaiting results from the electricity cluster study, which is expected in late June. This will then provide more clarity around the Mazeppa start-up date. At full capacity, Journey’s Countess, Gilby and Mazeppa power projects are forecast to provide cash flow of over $17 million in 2025.
The ability to maintain production rates near 12,000 boe/d with limited capex is a testament to Journey’s very low corporate decline rate of 13%, and our proved, developed, producing, net asset value (NPV@10%) of $5.00/share (see the February 22,2024 reserves press release). In addition to $17 million of power-related capital in 2024, approximately $18 million of capital will be devoted to land, seismic, facilities, polymer, and end-of-life costs. Most of these expenditures will add to Journey’s future value and future cash flow but have only a minor impact on 2024 production volumes due to the expenditures being made later in the year. This leaves $16 million (approximately 31%) of budgeted expenditures to maintain current production volumes.
In addition, $9 million will be devoted to end-of-life costs, land, and seismic.
OUTLOOK & GUIDANCE
The below guidance incorporates many material underlying assumptions including but not limited to:
- Forecasted commodity prices;
- Assumptions of vendor-take-back principal payments, as these repayments are based upon realized WTI oil prices;
- Forecast operating costs, including forecasted prices for power;
- Forecast costs for the capital program; and
- Forecast results and phasing in of production additions from the capital program.
Journey is maintaining its current guidance pertaining to sales volumes and Adjusted Funds Flow ranges due to a series of offsetting factors. Increased downtime due to the extreme cold weather in January and increased downtime budgeted for turnarounds and routine maintenance has reduced initially forecasted volumes. Increased capital devoted to the polymer and waterflood expansions also reduces near term volumes (in favour of future volumes) due to injector conversions. Drilling capital will be phased-in for later in 2024 and therefore will have a minor impact on 2024 volumes. The impact of the incremental capital is to increase exit liquids (crude oil and NGL’s) volumes by 500-600 bbl/d. The combined impact of the increased liquids production and the future secondary/tertiary recovery volumes positions Journey very well for an expanded capital program in 2025.
The recent financing has provided Journey financial flexibility to exit 2024 without a significant working capital deficit. After the final payment for the AIMCo term debt on April 30, 2025, there will be no debt repayment obligations until 2029. This, along with the inclusion of new power generation revenue in 2025, will provide the Company the ability to significantly ramp up growth capital in 2025. This will include, but is not limited to, the drilling of two Duvernay wells. Journey has 35 net sections of largely contiguous land in the heart of the west shale basin. The land has been delineated by three basin leading wells. As an early indicator of the value of this play, on March 20 2024, two-year mineral licenses for approximately 30 sections of offsetting lands to Journey, and on trend in the oil window, were sold for over $1 million per section.
Adjusted Funds Flow projections for 2024 remain unchanged from previous guidance since the reduction in the forecasted natural gas pricing is being offset by a minor increase in the pricing for oil. Journey will update its guidance in due course at regular intervals throughout the year as commodity price projections change.
| 2024 Updated Guidance | 2024 Initial Guidance | |
| Annual average daily sales volumes | 11,500-12,000 boe/d (55% crude oil & NGL’s) | 11,500-12,000 boe/d (55% crude oil & NGL’s) |
| Adjusted Funds Flow | $70 – 73 million | $70 – 73 million |
| Adjusted Funds Flow per weighted average share | $1.14 – $1.19 | $1.14 – $1.19 |
| Capital spending | $51 million | $41 million |
| Year-end Net Debt Net Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow ratio |
$40 – $44 million 0.6x |
$28 – $31 million 0.4x |
| Reference commodity prices: WTI (USD $/bbl) MSW oil differentials (USD $/bbl) WCS oil differentials (USD $/bbl) AECO natural gas (CAD $/mcf) CAD/USD foreign exchange |
$78.00 $4.50 $15.50 $2.25 $0.74 |
$75.00 $3.75 $16.50 $2.75 $0.74 |
Notes:
- The weighting of the corporate sales volumes guidance is as follows:
- Heavy crude oil: 19%
- Light/medium crude oil: 25%
- NGL’s: 11%
- Coal-bed methane natural gas: 5%
- Conventional natural gas: 40%
Journey has embarked on a careful and prudent expansion of its business plan to grow the Company profitably. This includes executing on acquisitions the timing of which can be unpredictable and when executed on, can defer drilling plans.
About the Company
Journey is a Canadian exploration and production company focused on conventional, oil-weighted operations in western Canada. Journey’s strategy is to grow its production base by drilling on its existing core lands, implementing water flood projects, executing on accretive acquisitions. Journey seeks to optimize its legacy oil pools on existing lands through the application of best practices in horizontal drilling and, where feasible, with water floods.
For further information contact:
Alex G. Verge
President and Chief Executive Officer
403-303-3232
alex.verge@journeyenergy.ca
or
Gerry Gilewicz
Chief Financial Officer
403-303-3238
gerry.gilewicz@journeyenergy.ca
Journey Energy Inc.
700, 517 – 10th Avenue SW
Calgary, AB T2R 0A8
403-294-1635
www.journeyenergy.ca
ADVISORIES
This press release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively “forward looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws relating to the Company’s plans and other aspects of the anticipated future operations, management focus, strategies, financial, operating and production results, industry conditions, commodity prices and business opportunities. In addition, and without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this press release contains forward-looking information regarding decline rates, anticipated netbacks, drilling inventory, estimated average drill, complete and equip and tie-in costs, anticipated potential of the Assets including, but not limited to, EOR performance and opportunities, capacity of infrastructure, potential reduction in operating costs, production guidance, total payout ratio, capital program and allocation thereof, future production, decline rates, funds flow, net debt, net debt to funds flow, exchange rates, reserve life, development and drilling plans, well economics, future cost reductions, potential growth, and the source of funding Journey’s capital spending. Forward-looking information typically uses words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “project”, “expect”, “goal”, “plan”, “intend” or similar words suggesting future outcomes, statements that actions, events or conditions “may”, “would”, “could” or “will” be taken or occur in the future.
The forward-looking information is based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by management, including expectations and assumptions concerning prevailing commodity prices and differentials, exchange rates, interest rates, applicable royalty rates and tax laws; future production rates and estimates of operating costs; performance of existing and future wells; reserve and resource volumes; anticipated timing and results of capital expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the timing, location and extent of future drilling operations; the state of the economy and the exploration and production business; results of operations; performance; business prospects and opportunities; the availability and cost of financing, labour and services; the impact of increasing competition; the ability to efficiently integrate assets and employees acquired through acquisitions, including the Acquisition, the ability to market oil and natural gas successfully and the ability to access capital. Although we believe that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Journey can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking information addresses future events and conditions, by its very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking information and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that we will derive therefrom. Management has included the above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information provided in this press release in order to provide security holders with a more complete perspective on future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors that could affect the operations or financial results are included in reports on file with applicable securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com).These forward looking statements are made as of the date of this press release and we disclaim any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities laws.
This press release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI”) about Journeys prospective results of operations, funds flow, netbacks, debt, payout ratio well economics and components thereof, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained in this press release was made as of the date of this press release and was provided for providing further information about Journey’s anticipated future business operations. Journey disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI contained in this press release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. Information in this press release that is not current or historical factual information may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws, which involves substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, most of which are beyond the control of Journey, including, without limitation, those listed under “Risk Factors” and “Forward Looking Statements” in the Annual Information Form filed on www.SEDAR.com on March 28, 2024. Forward-looking information may relate to the future outlook and anticipated events or results and may include statements regarding the business strategy and plans and objectives. Particularly, forward-looking information in this press release includes, but is not limited to, information concerning Journey’s drilling and other operational plans, production rates, and long-term objectives. Journey cautions investors in Journey’s securities about important factors that could cause Journey’s actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements included in this press release. Information in this press release about Journey’s prospective funds flows and financial position is based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and courses of action, based on management’s assessment of the relevant information currently available. Readers are cautioned that information regarding Journey’s financial outlook should not be used for purposes other than those disclosed herein. Forward-looking information contained in this press release is based on current estimates, expectations and projections, which we believe are reasonable as of the current date. No assurance can be given that the expectations set out in the Prospectus or herein will prove to be correct and accordingly, you should not place undue importance on forward-looking information and should not rely upon this information as of any other date. While we may elect to, we are under no obligation and do not undertake to update this information at any particular time except as required by applicable securities law.
Non-IFRS Measures
The Company uses the following non-IFRS measures in evaluating corporate performance. These terms do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards and therefore may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures by other companies.
(1) “Adjusted Funds Flow” is calculated by taking “cash flow provided by operating activities” from the financial statements and adding or deducting: changes in non-cash working capital; non-recurring “other” income; transaction costs; and decommissioning costs. Adjusted Funds Flow per share is calculated as Adjusted Funds Flow divided by the weighted-average number of shares outstanding in the period. Because Adjusted Funds Flow and Adjusted Funds Flow per share are not impacted by fluctuations in non-cash working capital balances, we believe these measures are more indicative of performance than the GAAP measured “cash flow generated from operating activities”. In addition, Journey excludes transaction costs from the definition of Adjusted Funds Flow, as these expenses are generally in respect of capital acquisition transactions. The Company considers Adjusted Funds Flow a key performance measure as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to generate funds necessary to repay debt and to fund future growth through capital investment. Journey’s determination of Adjusted Funds Flow may not be comparable to that reported by other companies. Journey also presents “Adjusted Funds Flow per basic share” where per share amounts are calculated using the weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation of net income (loss) per share, which per share amount is calculated under IFRS and is more fully described in the notes to the audited, year-end consolidated financial statements.
(2) “Netback(s)“. The Company uses netbacks to help evaluate its performance, leverage, and liquidity; comparisons with peers; as well as to assess potential acquisitions. Management considers netbacks as a key performance measure as it demonstrates the Company’s profitability relative to current commodity prices. Management also uses them in operational and capital allocation decisions. Journey uses netbacks to assess its own performance and performance in relation to its peers. These netbacks are operating, Funds Flow and net income (loss). “Operating netback” is calculated as the average sales price of the commodities sold (excluding financial hedging gains and losses), less royalties, transportation costs and operating expenses. There is no GAAP measure that is reasonably comparable to netbacks.
(3) “Net debt” is calculated by taking current assets and then subtracting accounts payable and accrued liabilities; the principal amount of term debt; and other loans. Net debt is used to assess the capital efficiency, liquidity and general financial strength of the Company. In addition, net debt is used as a comparison tool to assess financial strength in relation to Journey’s peers.
(4) Journey uses “Capital Expenditures” to measure its capital investment level compared to the Company’s annual budgeted capital expenditures for its organic capital program, excluding acquisitions or dispositions. The directly comparable GAAP measure to capital expenditures is cash used in investing activities. Journey then adjusts its capital expenditures for acquisition and divestiture (“A&D”) activity to give a more complete analysis for its capital spending used for finding, development and acquisition purposes.
Measurements
All dollar figures included herein are presented in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted.
Where amounts are expressed in a barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”), or barrel of oil equivalent per day (“boe/d”), natural gas volumes have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent at nine (6) thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) to one (1) barrel. Use of the term boe may be misleading particularly if used in isolation. The boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf to 1 barrel (“Bbl”) of oil or natural gas liquids is based on an energy equivalency conversion methodology primarily applicable at the burner tip, and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. This conversion conforms to the Canadian Securities Regulators’ National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities.
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used throughout these MD&A and have the ascribed meanings:
| AIMCo | Alberta Investment Management Corporation |
| API | American Petroleum Institute |
| bbl | Barrel |
| bbls | Barrels |
| boe | barrels of oil equivalent (see conversion statement below) |
| boe/d | barrels of oil equivalent per day |
| gj | Gigajoules |
| GAAP | Generally Accepted Accounting Principles |
| IFRS | International Financial Reporting Standards |
| Mbbls | thousand barrels |
| Mboe | thousand boe |
| Mcf | thousand cubic feet |
| Mmcf | million cubic feet |
| Mmcf/d | million cubic feet per day |
| MSW | Mixed sweet Alberta benchmark oil price at Edmonton Alberta |
| MW | One million watts of power |
| NGL’s | natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, butane and condensate) |
| VTB | Vendor-take-back term debt issued by Journey to Enerplus Corporation as partial payment of the purchase price for the asset acquisition on October 31, 2022 |
| WCS | Western Canada Select benchmark oil price. This crude oil is heavy/sour with API gravity of 19-22 degrees and sulphur content of 1.8-3.2%. |
| WTI | West Texas Intermediate benchmark Oil price. This crude oil is light/sweet with API gravity of 39.6 degrees and sulfur content of 0.24%. |
All volumes in this press release refer to the sales volumes of crude oil, natural gas and associated by-products measured at the point of sale to third-party purchasers. For natural gas, this occurs after the removal of natural gas liquids.
No securities regulatory authority has either approved or disapproved of the contents of this press release.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/20
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