Oil:
Daily Oil Chart:
Analysis:
Wave i ended at the 103.65 high and we are now falling in a lengthy and complex wave ii correction.
We are now going to adopt our alternate count for wave ii, which is suggesting that wave a ended at 63.57. Since that low was made, we have been working on a wave b bearish triangle formation which is very nearly complete, perhaps at the 84.56 high.
Wave -e- cannot move above the wave -c- high of 87.67.
We should see a drop in wave c, as the next big event in this market.
Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:
50% = 68.50.
61.8% = 53.87.
We will update our Daily Crude Chart adopting our alternate count, in the next day or so. In this case, we are now rallying in wave -e-, which may now be complete at the 84.38 high, and which cannot move above the wave -c- high of 87.67.
After wave ii ends, we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii!
Trading Recommendation: Go long crude with a put as a stop. Go long Suncor.
Active Positions: Long crude with puts as a stop! Long Suncor!
Interest Rates:
Daily Rates Chart:
Analysis:
The projected decline in oil is in sync with our projected decline in rates.
The US 10-year Bond Yield has completed wave i at the 5.021% high and we are now correcting that 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 2.698%;
61.8% = 2.155%.
It now looks like wave -iii- is subdividing with wave !i! ending at 4.227% and wave !ii! at the 4.479% high. We should now be falling in wave !iii!.
We are currently assuming that wave ii will be a simple 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. If this is the corrective pattern that wave ii is following then we are assuming that all of wave -i- of (a), ended at 3.785% and it looks like wave -ii- is complete at the 4.737% high.
If that is the case we are now falling in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 2.776%.
The other option is that wave ii is more advanced than we currently indicate but both our preferred and alternate counts suggest a significant drop in rates (and oil) is imminent.
Our plan is to stay short to capture all of the wave ii drop.
Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 5.050%.
Active Positions: Short risking to 5.050%!
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Gold:
Daily Gold Chart:
Analysis:
Gold had a stellar week and we continue to rally in wave .v..
Within that wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80. If that is the case then we are starting to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a new updated projected endpoint of:
^iii^ = 4.236^i^ = 2724.40!
Wave ^iii^ is subdividing with wave $i$ ending at 2151.20 and wave $ii$ at the 1973.10 low. We are rallying in a subdividing wave $iii$ with wave !i! ending at 2088.50, wave !ii! at 1984.30, wave !iii! at the 2431.50 high, and now all of wave !iv! at the 2277.60 low.
Our current projected target for the end of wave !v! and -iii- is significantly higher and that target is:
-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10!
Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold futures from about $1070 for a long-term C-wave hold, with puts as our stops!
Free Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers: Please send me an Email to [email protected] and I’ll send you our free “GDX: Shocking Wave Counts In Play!” report. We announce new and incredibly bullish wave counts for GDX. Both weekly and daily charts are included with this incredibly positive and important analysis!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.captainewave.com
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