The precious metals sector is showing increasing bullish momentum, with silver, platinum, and mining stocks breaking out in recent weeks. These moves point to a likely intermediate cycle low for gold on April 7th. If this cycle count is accurate, we’re now eight weeks into a new cycle, with the next significant low anticipated around August.
Despite strength across the broader sector, gold has yet to confirm the move. Without a decisive close above the April high of $3,500, the risk of a pullback—potentially toward $2,800—remains in play.
At the same time, a potential double bottom in the U.S. dollar could pressure metals further if it leads to a rebound. In this report, we’ll examine the key technical signals in gold, silver, platinum, and the mining stocks, and outline what to watch as the summer unfolds.
Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 342 and is nearing minimum cycle topping.
US DOLLAR: To get a significant pullback in metals and miners, we must complete this double bottom in the dollar. A rebound into August would be the perfect recipe for a correction in precious metals.
GOLD: With this week’s breakouts in silver, platinum, and the miners, I’m increasingly leaning toward April 7th, marking an intermediate cycle low, implying the next significant bottom may not occur until August. Gold has yet to confirm the recent strength in the metals and miners. Thus, I still see the potential for a move down towards $2,800, as long as gold doesn’t close above the April high of $3,500.
SILVER: Silver is nearing confirmation of a major breakout, but prices need to hold above $36.00 for more than a few days to validate the move. A drop back below $35.00 would suggest another false breakout, similar to what occurred last October.
PLATINUM: Platinum is testing the top of its 4-year range, and we’re approaching a critical point—either a breakout or the formation of another top. Seasonally, prices tend to weaken into August, so a sustained breakout at this time would be somewhat surprising.
GDX: Gold has yet to confirm the breakout in miners, with MACD momentum showing signs of weakening. Tomorrow’s employment data will be a key catalyst—how price responds could be telling. A close below $52.81 would establish a swing high and point to a potential top.
GDXJ: Approximately every five months, juniors tend to form cyclical turning points as the calendar month changes. However, this cycle may be inverting—suggesting that, instead of a bottom, we could be seeing a potential top. A close below today’s gap at $69.23 would support the case for a top. On the other hand, sustained follow-through above $72.00 would indicate a breakout above the trendline.
SILJ: As long as silver juniors stay above $14.20, I see the potential for a significant breakout.
Conclusion
As we move deeper into the current cycle, the next several weeks will be critical in determining whether the precious metals breakout gains traction or falters. While silver, platinum, and miners are flashing bullish signals, gold’s hesitation to confirm raises the possibility of a final corrective move—especially if the dollar rebounds into August. Until gold closes decisively above $3,500, caution remains warranted.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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