Gold prices have entered an exceptional rally, breaking away from traditional technical and cyclical patterns. Fueled largely by a weakening U.S. dollar—now down over 11% since January—this surge has pushed gold above key moving averages for an unprecedented stretch.
While market sentiment remains bullish, historical signals and extreme public interest suggest a correction may be approaching. This forecast explores current dynamics across gold, silver, platinum, and mining stocks, offering insight into what may lie ahead as volatility and uncertainty intensify.
GOOGLE TRENDS
Search interest in “gold price” hit an all-time high in April, far exceeding the 2011 peak. Historically, such surges in public attention have preceded major corrections. For example, after a similar spike in March 2020, gold fell 20% in the following months. This expected correction has yet to materialize.
US DOLLAR
The U.S. dollar dipped to new lows, but mounting geopolitical tensions with Iran could provide support and help stabilize prices. Once a bottom is established, a rebound toward the 102–103 range is likely—potentially setting the stage for a broader correction in the precious metals market.
GOLD
Gold has now traded above its 50-day EMA for 110 consecutive sessions, a rare event that typically happens only once per decade. A sustained move below the EMA (currently at $3,252) would signal the start of a correction. Without the recent market disruption from tariff headlines, I believe the natural cycle low would have occurred in April. If that holds, the next meaningful low could arrive in August.
SILVER
Silver is pushing higher, but without confirmation from gold, its momentum may be waning. Upside follow-though above $37.00 is needed for a test of $40.00+.
PLATINUM
Platinum has broken above $1,200 and is approaching the 2021 high of $1,350. So far, there’s no sign of a top forming. All signs suggest we are in the midst of a significant breakout.
GDX: Miners rallied as the dollar slipped to new lows, pushing prices toward potential new highs. However, the negative MACD divergence signals that further upside may be limited.
GDXJ: Junior miners are approaching last week’s high, and a close above $71.84 could extend the rally. A meaningful correction is unlikely until the dollar finds a bottom.
SILJ: Closing above $15.53 would support a bull flag breakout and more upside. On the other hand, downside follow-through below the $14.40 price gap would promote a top.
NEM: Newmont posted a fresh closing high, with prices now approaching the $58.00 mark. A sustained breakout above the October high seems unlikely at this stage, but anything is possible if the dollar continues its slide.
BARRICK: Barrick is testing the $21.00 area again. Progressive closes above this level would signal a bullish breakout.
Conclusion
A correction in gold and related assets could materialize once the dollar finds support, particularly if geopolitical tensions subside. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to volatility, and traders should approach with caution. Timing the turn won’t be easy, but staying alert to macro shifts and key technical levels will be essential in navigating what’s next for precious metals.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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