Gold leads real interest rates at important turning points.
On the bullish side, Gold positively diverged from rising or strong real rates before the 2005 breakout and 2018 to 2020 cyclical advance. On the bearish side, Gold peaked in 2011 and summer 2020 before real interest rates bottomed.
Gold, though starting to crack, is only 12% off its all-time high despite a +3.66% increase in the real 10-year yield. It is showing a strong positive divergence to record strength in the real 10-year yield.
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