Gold tested crucial resistance around $2,760 and then reversed sharply.
Unless there’s a rapid shift, this likely signals the end of the current rebound.
Silver stalled above $33.00 on Thursday, and the likelihood now leans towards a secondary decline towards $28.50.
Summary
Gold has surged nearly $1,000 from its low in October 2023 and is currently taking a well-deserved pause. The breakout above $2,100 in March 2024 marked a pivotal moment, signaling the start of a new bull market in precious metals that is expected to continue for several more years. After years of underperforming, we believe silver will take center stage in 2025.
GOLD: Gold reversed sharply after testing resistance near $2,760, which could mark the end of the rebound. Progressive closes back below the 50-day EMA would establish a secondary decline back towards $2,500. Once prices bottom, we foresee a run towards $3,000+ by March or April.
SILVER: Silver formed an outside reversal day, potentially marking the end of this rebound. A secondary breakdown below $30.00 is becoming likely, with a measured target near $28.25. We expect a strong 2025 for silver with a $40+ target.
PLATINUM: Platinum has been stuck between $800 and $1,200 for a decade. A dip below $900 is likely if metals and miners rollover.
GDX: Miners reversed after testing $39.00, which could mark the end of the multi-week rebound. Prices would have to close above $38.50 to signal more upside. Otherwise, the odds favor a decline to fresh lows into year-end.
GDXJ: Thursday’s bearish reversal supports an end to this rebound, increasing the likelihood of fresh lows at year-end.
SILJ: Silver juniors reversed after a relatively weak bounce. A secondary breakdown from here could trigger a retest of support near $10.50 before bottoming.
NEM: Newmont remains below its 200-day MA, and a breakdown below $40.00 is likely if the gold rebound is over.
BARRICK: The rebound in Barrick failed to recapture the 200-day and the trend looks poised for fresh lows.
Conclusion
Metals and miners are undergoing a correction after strong gains in 2024. A bottom is expected in January, with gold likely testing $3,000 by March or April. In 2025, we anticipate silver will take the lead, outperforming gold and exceeding $40.00.
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