EVs In The Post-Tax Credit US: Inevitable Rise Or Crashing Demise? – CleanTechnica

---

Support CleanTechnica’s work through a Substack subscription or on Stripe.

---

On September 30, a US federal subsidy for new electric vehicles (EVs) expired as part of President Trump’s Big Ugly spending bill. Now, in this post-tax credit era in which we live, analysts have been hesitant to commit to a future in which all-electric personal transportation can survive on its own merits and pricing.

Goodbye, $7,500-per-vehicle EV federal tax credit. Hello, a compromise period in which automakers step up with price cuts and incentives? Or could it be a new era of EV independence in which infrastructure expands and consumers grab onto EVs’ obvious benefits?

Negative Perceptions of EVs Prevail in Some Sectors

New projections of EV expansion are definitely less robust than an original BloombergNEF forecast: 27% of sales, down from the previous 47.5% sales projection by 2030. “It’s going to be a choppy period of time ahead,” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electrified transport at the research firm BloombergNEF.

Add to that cost comparisons between EVs and gas-powered vehicles, which still lean largely in favor of the latter. The average transaction price for new EVs remains high—about $57,000 compared to $49,000 for a traditional new car.

“We’re going to see some noise in October and November, and I expect that EV demand is going to drop off pretty precipitously,” General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson said during an investor event earlier this month. Jacobson outlined an upcoming period in which automakers will “need to let it settle and understand where is that natural demand is going,” as well as how to meet that demand. The eventual goal continues to be to “try to lead customers to electric vehicles. That’s going to take a little bit of time.”

Such comments could be interpreted as introducing a correction period in which the automotive industry reassesses authentic EV demand and production quotas. Perhaps part of that wait-and-see perspective has to do with Republican policies that eliminated fines manufacturers were expected to pay for failing to meet escalating fuel economy targets.

Not everyone is so quick to judgment as Jacobson. CleanTechnica’s Michael Barnard reminds us that with electric vehicles, “crossing the chasm involves a combination of policy shifts, infrastructure expansion, economic incentives, and consumer behavior changes.”

How will the electric vehicle marketplace adapt to changing conditions? What innovations will persuade consumers to make the leap to the next era of mobility?

Post-Tax Credit EV Curiosity

EV sales growth in the 3rd quarter in the US, year over year, indicated that several automakers had real success stories.

Several automakers seem hell-bent on continuing the positive trend. Ford and General Motors (is Jacobsen talking to his own marketing department?) have announced dealer programs and lease offers to help consumers join the EV ranks. Hyundai let slip this week it is slashing the price of the IONIQ 5 — its best selling electric car in the US — by nearly $10,000.

CleanTechnica editor, Zachary Shahan suggests that the wave of consumers who took advantage of the EV tax credit — whether new or used — is going to influence many others to become aware of EVs and their advantages.

It makes sense. An EV skeptic sees their neighbor plugging in. The quiet is remarkable as the vehicle accelerates with its amazing instant torque.. Maybe they accept an invitation to take a ride and learn about the EV convenience of regenerative braking, which allows brakes to last almost indefinitely and requires less pedal footwork. The neighbor begins to wonder if their original malaise about EVs wasn’t fully grounded in everyday driving experiences. “Some percentage of those people are going to then go on to buying an electric car,” according to Shahan. He adds:

There is the possibility that the net benefit of accelerating many EV purchases by even a couple of quarters is stronger since those word-of-mouth sales grow faster at a fairly high scale and then snowball and accelerate the transition.

It’s important to add every single time we talk about the transition to electric mobility that EVs reduce environmental pollution, which is also beneficial for public health and helps to reduce fossil energy consumption.

Charging Infrastructure Is A Bright Spot

Proponents say that millions of EVs are expected to hit the road in the coming years, regardless of Trump’s policies. Reliable EV charging is essential to those electric vehicle adoption rates.

While many renewable energy programs have been gutted by the Trump administration in efforts to prop up the fossil fuel industry, one program remains solvent: the $5 billion effort to install electric vehicle chargers from coast to coast.

The US National EV Infrastructure (NEVI) program, part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that was passed in 2021, allocated $5 billion to fund fast chargers along corridors. By the end of 2024 about $30 million had been spent on charging points that are now in operation. Critics of federal EV charging infrastructure funding say that it took too long for states to act on the federal opportunity.

Actually, the time delay in EV charging infrastructure rests in designs and approvals to be finalized. Once contracts are signed by all parties, permits are lined up, and hardware is delivered, construction only takes a couple of weeks. New EV charging facilities can be up and running very quickly once the behind-the-scenes work is done.

No matter the intransigence of the Trump administration and its Heritage Foundation backers, EVs are here to stay, according to the Global EV Outlook 2025.

This week a Politico investigation has revealed that more than 40 states are continuing on with their plans to invest federal funding in EV charging infrastructure.

Interestingly, red states are at the head of the line. Take a bow, Texas and Montana.

Recently it didn’t seem certain that EV chargers would be one of the Biden-era clean energy programs left standing. On the campaign trail, Trump had derided EV chargers, calling them “crazy.” But in the last few months, Congressionally approved programs were in the spotlight, causing a fierce dispute between the Government Accountability Office and the White House over the NEVI funds. At least 32 states said their plans have won approval from DOT’s Federal Highway Administration, giving them access to the frozen funds from previous years and fiscal year 2026.

What happened to sustain the EV charging program, anyway? Partially, the program’s resilience stems from a June federal court decision that decreed Trump can’t just decide to halt the funding, determining such a move to be illegal.

“If you look at the states that are putting their [charging] plans and their money back into play the soonest, it’s really states that recognize their EV adoption rate is going to continue to climb,” said Joshua Rodriguez, program director for environment at the nonpartisan American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. “Red or blue or purple, it doesn’t really matter.”

All eyes will be on the EV marketplace over the next year. Adaptation, compromise, and vision will determine the next era of personal transportation mobility.