EV Sales Bad, EV Charging Stations Good

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The much-anticipated downward slide in US electric vehicle sales is well underway, now that 30 days have passed since the premature demise of the federal EV tax credit. Nevertheless, some analysts already anticipate that sales will pick up again by 2030, and stakeholders in the EV charging station field are already anticipating as much.

All The Bad News About EV Sales In The US

The pace of EV sales in the US was absolutely sizzling in the weeks leading up to the September 30 drop-dead date for the federal EV tax credit. Check out CleanTechnica’s coverage here, and then take a look at the Cox Automotive forecast for October. “Moving forward, the EV segment will be charting a new path, unsupported by government-backed sales incentives,” Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbro noted on October 27.

“The EV sales story will really change going forward from here,” he added. “Sales of EVs and PHEVs are expected to collapse in October as tax credits expire.”

J.D. Power also has an October forecast in hand. The firm calculates that EVs will claim only a 5.2% share of new-vehicle sales in the US for the month of October. That’s a sharp contrast with last month, when EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle sales as buyers rushed to beat the September 30 deadline, representing a new, albeit short-lived, peak for EV sales in the US.

Bad news aside, the head of J.D. Power’s data and analytics division, Thomas King, noted that the fallout was not as severe as expected. “Despite the sharp deterioration in EV sales, the decline could have been worse,” he explained. “Actions by multiple manufacturers to reduce EV prices and increase discounts to offset the loss of the federal credit are helping to maintain EV affordability, thereby preventing an even larger decline in EV sales.”

EV Sales Set To Almost Double Their Peak Market Share By 2030, Maybe

On the brighter side, E&E News cites Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights for Cox Automotive, who foresees a 24% market share for EVs in 2030. That’s substantially less than the 2o30 forecast of a 50% share for EVs put out during the last weeks of the Biden administration, but it does suggest that Streaty is also reading something about affordability in the EV tea leaves.

That outlook is supported by two key auto industry developments in August. Ford and GM both announced ambitious new EV manufacturing plans highlighted by the forthcoming launch of more affordable models using new, less costly LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) batteries.

That was a full month after the Republican majority in Congress passed the new budget bill that terminated the EV tax credit, suggesting confidence in the long-term outlook for EV sales.

Short-term, the outlook is not so great. However, the US auto industry has been playing Whack-a-Mole with the tastes of the vehicle-owning public for more than a century, retooling factories, opening factories, and closing factories as the market dictates. Given that history, a pullback today does not necessarily mean a permanent slide into oblivion for EV sales in the US.

More EV Charging Stations For More EVs

Another indicator of a comeback for EV sales is continued activity in the public EV fast-charging network area. Work has kept up a breakneck pace all year, notably among travel centers, quick-serve restaurants, and other retail locations competing for drive-and-park customers.

US President Donald Trump tried to put a crimp in the action earlier this year when he abruptly suspended the federally funded, $5 billion NEVI fast-charging station program. However, the US system of checks and balances is still functioning here and there. Earlier this month a judge ordered the funding restored.

That explains the latest news from Kempower, a leading manufacturer of fast-charging stations based in Finland. Earlier today, the company’s US branch announced that the NEVI program is supporting the installation of eight new fast-charging sites in the Southeast US, outfitted by Kempower in partnership with the EV charging network PowerUp America.

Partisan Politics Or Not, Red States Are Going Green

Considering the partisan political divide over cleantech in general and EVs in particular, that focus on the Southeast may seem out of touch with reality. Although two of the sites are in the purplish state of Virginia, five will go to the Republican trifecta state of Tennessee. The eighth site is slated for Kentucky, where President Trump coasted to a victory by more than 30 percentage points in last year’s elections.

Be that as it may, Kempower already has a manufacturing footprint in the US and it is following the money. “Kempower’s partnership with PowerUp represents one of its most significant North American undertakings to date, advancing access to high-power charging infrastructure across a critical region for EV adoption,” Kempower explained in a press statement earlier today.

“The Southeast is one of the most dynamic EV charging markets in the country,” added Monil Malhotra, President of Kempower North America.

PowerUp has been focusing on the Southeast market, too. “The company’s strategic investments across the region, including the awarded NEVI sites, reflect PowerUp’s long-term vision to build resilient, accessible, and future-ready charging infrastructure,” Kempower notes.

PowerUp CEO Josh Turner also chipped in his two cents. “Working with Kempower ensures our sites deliver the performance, reliability, and state-of-the-art quality drivers deserve as the EV landscape continues to evolve,” Turner explained.

EV Sales In The Southeast

So, what is really going on with EV sales in the Southeast, where red state politics have collided with the region’s EV manufacturing sector.

In September, the Southeast Alliance for Clean Energy took note of the damage already done by Trump and his Republican allies in Congress. “Thanks to the loss of consumer and manufacturing incentives, along with broader market uncertainty caused by the political flip-flop on EVs, the Southeast is already seeing planned manufacturing projects paused or canceled,” SACE observes. “This trend is further exacerbated by trade tariffs that are expected to increase costs across the automotive industry.”

Still, when SACE ran the numbers earlier this year, they spotted signs that EV sales in the region were on track to outpace the rest of the country:

“Here, the data speaks for itself; sales rose 38% from last year, and market share–the percentage of all new car sales that were EVs–climbed to 8.3%, despite a dip for all states in Q2, except Florida, which rocketed above the national average to an all-time high of 10.3%.”

“The number of sales generated by legacy car companies also continued to increase, including at General Motors and Ford,” SACE added.

So, will the Southeast emerge as a beacon of hope for EV sales as the US vehicle electrification movement struggles through the remainder of Trump’s term in office? And who or what will replace EV industry leader Tesla as the company’s brand reputation continues to rot from within? If you have any thoughts about that, drop a note in the comment thread.

Photo (cropped): The sudden collapse of EV sales in the US notwithstanding, the Finnish firm Kempower foresees a healthy market for EV charging stations over the long term (courtesy of Kempower).