Electric Trucks Are Rapidly Approaching A Tipping Point — Just Not In The US – CleanTechnica

---

Support CleanTechnica’s work through a Substack subscription or on Stripe.

---

---

A report out this week from BloombergNEF claims that demand for medium and heavy trucks with zero tailpipe emissions is growing quickly. Technology development, infrastructure expansion, and policy actions mean electric trucks are already cost competitive in some countries and use cases. As the market expands, and both manufacturers and operators gain more experience, some of the risks holding back wider adoption are being addressed. Here are the key points from that report:

• Commercial vehicles are set to become the largest contributor to road transport CO2 emissions. Without further action, the truck sector is far from a trajectory consistent with net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Policy support for heavy vehicles and charging infrastructure in this segment is rising as a result, albeit unevenly across countries.
• Zero-emission truck sales approached 90,000 units globally in the first half of 2025, almost as many as in the whole of 2024. The global share of sales is on track to approach 4% in 2025. The Chinese market has widened its lead and accounts for more than 90% of global sales. The European market is growing strongly in more countries, while sales in the US have plummeted due to policy reversals.
• Batteries are the technology of choice for zero-emission trucks, capturing 97 percent of global sales. Trucks with swappable batteries continue to hold a sizeable share of the market in China, but this is declining as the market expands. The market for fuel cell trucks is concentrated in China and has steadily declined for the last year.

Sales Of Electric Trucks Accelerate In China

Colin McKerracher writes for Bloomberg Hyperdrive: “Over 89,000 electric trucks were sold in the first half of 2025, up 140 percent from the same period last year. China accounted for almost 80,000 of those, with sales in Europe making up most of the balance. US sales shrunk to just 200 units.” Those are some stark differences.

“The global heavy truck market is about five years behind passenger cars in terms of EV adoption. It’s a harder market to crack for many reasons, including demanding duty cycles, thin margins, and uncertainty with regard to residual values,” McKerracher says. However, he adds that many of those concerns are being addressed by better and cheaper batteries, more dedicated charging infrastructure, and more fleet operators becoming familiar with how electric trucks perform in revenue service.

One thing that is clearly not growing is the market for hydrogen fuel cell powered trucks. As Michael Barnard pointed out this week, of those nearly 90,000 zero emissions trucks sold in the first 6 months of this year, only about 1000 were fuel cell powered — half as many as during the same period last year. While the trajectory for battery electric trucks has risen sharply, the trajectory for fuel cell powered trucks is down almost as steeply.

Explosive Growth

According to CargoRx, the electric truck market is experiencing explosive growth and is projected to be valued at $29.69 billion in 2025 and reach $124.97 billion by 2030, a CAGR of 27 percent. “This isn’t just projections anymore—real sales data supports these optimistic forecasts,” it says.

“One of the most compelling arguments for electric truck adoption isn’t environmental — it’s economic,” according to CargoRx. “By 2030, nearly half of medium and heavy duty trucks will be cheaper to buy, operate, and maintain as zero emissions vehicles than traditional diesel powered combustion engine vehicles.”

The timeline for cost competitiveness varies by truck size and application. Smaller battery electric trucks are expected to become cost-competitive before 2030, while heavy trucks with fewer than 500 miles of range are projected to be cost-competitive by 2035, it says.

CargoRx identifies several economic factors it says will lead to more electric truck sales:

• Falling Battery Costs — Battery technology improvements and manufacturing scale are driving down costs rapidly, especially in China, where falling battery prices are driving strong growth in electric truck adoption.
• Lower Operating Costs — Electric trucks offer lower environmental impact, reduced operating costs, and improved range compared to traditional diesel vehicles. Maintenance costs are significantly lower due to fewer moving parts, and electricity costs per mile are typically lower than diesel fuel costs.
• Rising Fossil Fuel Costs — The rising cost of fossil fuels is accelerating the transition to electric mobility, making the total cost of ownership calculations increasingly favorable for electric alternatives.

McKerracher writes that one factor driving the adoption of electric trucks is extended battery warranties being offered by manufacturers. He believes that as truck manufacturers gain experience in real-world usage, they are steadily increasing their warranty coverage. The Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 now offers a battery warranty of 700,000 kilometers. Iveco offers a battery warranty of 1.2 million kilometers on some models. Those longer battery warranties will help reduce depreciation rates for electric trucks, which have been high for some early models.

Policy Support Matters

Policy support for electric trucking is strengthening in some markets and faltering in others, he says. China has been ramping up its efficiency standards for heavy-duty trucks. It also offers an array of purchase incentives and promotes charging infrastructure upgrades for heavy vehicles. In addition, it has incentives in place to encourage fleet operators to scrap older trucks that are big polluters.

In Europe, truck CO2 emissions targets came into effect in 2025 and are set to drive much higher levels of EV adoption. In the US, regulatory changes are already slowing down the market. Earlier this year, the Federal Trade Commission, with two newly appointed stooges in place, forced truck manufacturers to retreat from a prior agreement to abide by California’s clean truck emissions rules.

The BloombergNEF report makes it clear just how devastating the federal war on electric trucks has been. Sales of electric trucks in the US plummeted in the first six months of 2025, with fewer than 200 sold. That’s down about 80 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

“Some of the most consequential drivers of adoption are being threatened or eliminated,” McKerracher writes. “The federal CO2 emissions targets for medium and heavy duty trucks are effectively being relaxed following the Environmental Protection Agency’s sweeping activities. California lost its ability, awarded through an EPA granted waiver, to set sales quotas. The state also halted the waiver application for a similar program directed to fleet purchases of such vehicles.”

He adds that the “domestic supply chain for truck batteries is in its infancy. Cell manufacturing plants are now being built and truck makers currently import batteries from South Korea and elsewhere.” This does sound a lot like the electric car industry several years ago.

“Despite the gloom, state level programs and corporate activities point to latent demand for electric trucks. Purchase vouchers remain available in California, New York, and other states. Programs to send demand signals and aggregate freight work with e-trucks are also established. Also, truck charging stations continue to be built. Developers are raising funds and aim to establish large truck stops along busy freight corridors.”

Municipalities are also part of the transition to electric trucks, McKerracher says. Electric commercial van sales skyrocketed in the Netherlands to reach more than 80 percent of sales in the first half of this year after the government allowed municipalities to designate urban zero-emissions zones. So far, 18 cities, including Amsterdam, The Hague, and Eindhoven, have introduced such zones, with 11 more in planning.

Electric trucks are two to three times more efficient than diesel-powered models, which helps lower total cost of ownership calculations. Most long-haul models are now equipped with megawatt-scale charging capability, and more dedicated truck charging stations capable of supplying a megawatt or more of electricity are being constructed.

The Takeaway

Once again, we see China taking rational steps to lower emissions from heavy-duty trucks while the US harangues world leaders at the United Nations for embracing clean energy and low emissions transportation goals. The inherent benefits of electric trucks will power a transition away from diesel engines just as the inherent benefits of electric cars are convincing more drivers to make the switch away from internal combustion engines.

The transition won’t happen all at once; it will be gradual — like the tide coming in. But it is happening, and not even the ravings of America’s chief dunderhead will prevent the transition from moving forward.