The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions will increase through 2050 (assuming the global energy system remains on its current trajectory and absent new policy). Global population growth, increased regional manufacturing, and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency, according to EIA’s projections in its International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023).
In IEO2023, EIA projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase through 2050 in most of the cases modeled. Although EIA expects zero-carbon technology—renewables and nuclear—will meet the bulk of new energy demand through 2050, that growth is not sufficient to decrease global energy-related CO2 emissions in most cases under current laws and regulations, according to EIA’s projections.
“IEO2023 fills an important niche among global outlooks by focusing on a plausible but sober assessment of global energy trends through the first half of the century,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “There is considerable uncertainty in the energy landscape over the next 30 years, and the IEO provides a set of policy neutral baselines that will help guide sound decision-making.”
EIA’s projections assume no new laws and regulations, although they include side cases that account for varying levels of economic growth, oil prices, and zero-carbon technology costs.
Below are three main takeaways from EIA’s IEO2023 projections, followed by key sector-specific highlights.
Increasing population and income offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions.
Across all cases explored in IEO2023, global energy consumption increases, with the fastest growth in the residential and industrial sectors. Global consumption of liquid fuels increases through 2050, with the fastest growth occurring in industrial applications such as chemical production.
Economic growth and increased disposable income also increase demand for transportation in all cases.
“The transportation and industrial sectors are major consumers of liquid fuels throughout our projection period, but as electric vehicles grow to become a larger part of the global transportation fleet, the industrial sector accounts for an increasing share of petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption,” DeCarolis said.
The shift to renewables to meet growing electricity demand is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policy.
Compared with 2022, global electric power generating capacity increases by somewhere between 55% and 108% by 2050, depending on the case. Electricity generation increases between 30% to 76% over that period. Renewables, nuclear, and battery storage account for most of the growth in both global capacity and generation.
Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could increase by between 54% and 67%, according to EIA’s projections.
“Renewables become an increasingly cost-competitive source of electricity and grow the fastest in cases that assume high economic growth and greater electricity demand,” DeCarolis said.
Global battery storage capacity grows significantly in all IEO2023 cases. In 2022, battery storage accounted for less than 1% of global power capacity. EIA projects that battery storage capacity will grow to make up between 4% and 9% of global power capacity by 2050.
Energy security concerns hasten a transition from fossil fuels in some countries, although they drive increased fossil fuel consumption in others.
In nearly all IEO2023 cases, growth in energy production from non-fossil fuel sources outpaces growth in fossil fuels, but that dynamic varies from region to region. In Western Europe and China, policy, rapid demand growth, and energy security considerations favor locally available resources such as wind, solar, and battery storage, prompting more of these types of installations early in the projection period. Regions with access to relatively affordable coal, such as the Other Asia-Pacific region, consume more coal.
Natural gas and crude oil supply, consumption, and trade patterns evolve in our projections to meet growing demand against the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which we assume will continue to limit Russia’s exports to Western markets. The Middle East and North America increase natural gas production and exports to meet growing demand, particularly in China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
