€1.5 Trillion In Sustainable Mobility Investments Needed In European Cities – CleanTechnica

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The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) recently presented at the Tomorrow.Mobility World Congress (TMWC) in Barcelona. In particular, they presented about their new study, “Costs and benefits of the urban mobility transition.” One of the key points is that European cities will need a great deal of investments in sustainable mobility to reach emissions targets by 2050. The amount indicated by the study is €1.5 trillion. Another important point is that investing in more sustainable mobility could reduce traffic fatalities by up to 70%. (For much more information about the study go here.)

Yoann Le Petit, Thought Leadership Manager at EIT Urban Mobility, answered some questions for CleanTechnica about the gathering and the study.

For us non-Europeans, what is the Tomorrow.Mobility World Congress (TMWC)?

TMWC is an event taking place yearly in Barcelona in November. It is organized as part of the Smart City Expo World Congress, a global event attracting over 25,000 visitors. TMWC is the place for innovators to showcase their mobility solutions, and for practitioners from the public and private sectors to exchange on challenges and best practices in mobility. 

The study indicates that European cities will require €1.5 trillion in sustainable mobility investments by 2050 to meet emissions targets. Any ideas where that money might come from?

Our study does not recommend any specific type of funds to be allocated to sustainable mobility investments. The model, however, clearly shows that these investments need a joint effort from the public and the private sectors, where both types of stakeholders act for the same objectives and in a coordinated manner. 

What will it be used for?

The study models 12 different city prototypes to reflect geographic and size diversity. Three different mobility transition scenarios are simulated on the 12 prototypes. Scenario 1 looks at increasing the mobility options (supply side measures), scenario 2 is about reducing mobility demand with regulations and restrictions, and scenario 3 is a blend of increased mobility offer and restriction for private car use (“carrots and sticks” approach). The impact of almost 40 different mobility measures are simulated through these scenarios. This makes the study a tool for public authorities to identify the most suitable mobility measures in their context, allowing them to quantify the required investments and to prioritise mobility measures based on their anticipated impacts and their cost & benefits. Cities can also get a tailored simulation based on their use cases and own data, using the tool we have applied for our study.

How will the investments be prioritized in terms of locations? For example, will it be for the largest cities first?

Our model shows that the highest CO2 reduction potential resulting from sustainable mobility measures can be achieved in large cities, because of the size and number of trips that can be displaced from private motorized trips to more sustainable modes such as public transport, walking, and cycling. In large European cities, our study estimates that around 75% of trips can be sustainable by 2050, from less than 60% today. 

What are some examples of low-emissions zones and shared mobility solutions?

There are over 300 low-emission zones in Europe, which vary a lot in terms of scope (some tackle heavy duty vehicles only, other include also light duty vehicle; the age and emission limits for compliant vehicles vary as well) and geographic coverage (eg. city center vs. larger urban areas). The largest low-emission zone in Europe and worldwide is in London (so called Ultra Low Emission Zone), measuring 1,500 square kilometers covering 9 million people. In London, NO2 concentrations are estimated to be 21% lower in outer London & 53% lower in central London than they would have been without the ULEZ and its expansions. 

Shared mobility solutions include mostly car, bike, and e-scooter sharing, as well as taxi and ride-hailing services. It also encompasses Mobility as a Service (MaaS) applications, whereby users can book multimodal journeys within one single application (see for example Trafi). 

How can private car trips be reduced?

The scenarios we have modeled in our study clearly indicate that a mix of incentives and restrictions is essential to reduce private car trips. This “carrots and sticks” approach can reduce private trips by an additional 7%-9% compared to the scenario only focused on reducing demand and the one consisting in augmenting mobility offer without any restrictions.  Achieving the strongest change in mobility habits away from private motorized transport towards more public transport and shared mobility leads to the highest accumulated cost savings of up to €2,900 per inhabitant in 2030, and €15,000 per inhabitant by 2050. These cost savings are calculated as the socio-economic benefits resulting from less CO2, pollution, noise, and injuries/ fatalities resulting from more sustainable mobility behaviors.

In the US there are some citizens who don’t believe climate change is happening, and there are those who believe it is happening but it is not caused by humans — the climate change deniers and doubters. Are Europeans more open to recognizing climate change is real and caused by human activities? And are they more open to making changes to reduce climate change impacts such as reducing and even eliminating the use of fossil fuels?

This is not an aspect we explored in our study. What we show in our modeling is that there is a clear cost of delayed action in terms of CO2 reduction: our “carrots and sticks” scenario meeting the EU Green Deal’s CO2 emission reduction objective in 2030 (-55% CO2 compared to 1990 levels) leads to accumulated CO2 emissions per capita between 2022 (baseline year of our study) and 2050 of 5.8 tons, compared to 7 and 8.8 tons for the two other scenarios. The more we wait to tackle transport CO2 emissions, the more we emit even if the three scenarios in the end reach the 2050 target (-90% CO2 emissions compared to 1990 levels).

The question of openness to change really depends on the quality of the sustainable mobility offers as alternatives to the private car. An attractive public transport system, safe cycling and pedestrian networks, and a well-developed shared mobility ecosystem that is convenient and much cheaper than owning a car in a city is the best argument to convince people to change their mobility behavior.