China Announces Modest Emission Reduction Target – CleanTechnica

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It was show & tell time at the UN for the nations of the world this week, the time when they are scheduled to declare their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade as required by the Paris climate accords ten years ago. Some nations are holding off on making their announcements until COP30 in Brazil later this year.

The United States thumbed its nose at the process and continued to insist the Earth is not heating up and that methane, carbon dioxide, and fine particulates in the air are good for people’s health. That’s what the so-called president of the US told the General Assembly yesterday during a long, rambling diatribe during which he insulted virtually every US ally and claimed he should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Many of those who listened to his rant thought it would be more appropriate to give him an award for being the dumbest person ever to address the UN General Assembly. As part of his speech, he derided the idea of climate change and called it “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” [Editor’s note: I have a different idea for what was the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world. —Zach]

China & Emissions Reductions

For the past several days, observers have been speculating what China would say about trimming its emissions, which are the largest of any country thanks in large measure to its reliance on coal-powered thermal generation. The New York Times reported today that prior to this week, China had only pledged to slow the rise in its greenhouse gas emissions, which were expected to continue increasing until they peaked in 2030. In fact, the latest research suggests emissions in China have already reached a plateau — five years earlier than expected.

On Wednesday, September 24, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the General Assembly via video link that his country now plans to lower its greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent by 2035. Does that goal seem too modest? Perhaps it is, but China seems to prefer an “under-promise and over-deliver” strategy, which gives it plenty of wiggle room if things don’t go quite as expected. It also allows China to celebrate if it exceeds its target by a significant amount.

Xi said China would increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in its energy system to more than 30 percent over the next decade, referring to solar, wind, and hydro power. Doing so would lead to a drop in greenhouse gas emissions as renewables displace some of those coal-fired thermal generating plants that China has been so dependent on until now.

China Leads In Renewables

China is already installing more solar and wind power than any other nation. Xi said China plans to expand wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels, adding up to a massive 3,600 gigawatts in all. He also said China would make electric cars “mainstream” in new sales. Its surge in renewable energy is already having an impact on global emissions.

The New York Times said China’s announcement “is a nudge to other big polluters, like the European Union and India, to step up and submit new 2035 targets as required under the Paris accord. The European Union has issued tentative targets, and India has not yet submitted its plan.”

Writing for Bloomberg, Lili Pike said China’s commitment “falls short of what scientists estimate is needed to avoid passing the global warming limits enshrined in the Paris Agreement. It’s also less ambitious than cuts achieved by other countries, including Germany and Japan, after their emissions peaked.”

And yet, previously, China only talked about slowing the increase in its emissions. Now it is talking about emissions cuts, which means it has committed to joining the group of industrialized nations whose emissions are slowly but steadily decreasing. Going down is better than going up, and there is a general expectation among those gathered at the UN this week that China will surpass its modest goals years sooner than promised.

“China has often under-promised and over-delivered,” Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, told Lili Pike. The new climate target puts the country “on a path where clean tech defines economic leadership.” China’s 10 year goal for renewable energy, set in 2020, actually came to fruition six years ahead of schedule. Recent data suggests that China may have already reached peak emissions, even though Xi didn’t specify a starting year for China’s reduction target.

Pike says two dozen countries have managed to keep their emissions in decline for more than a decade, according to research by William Lamb, a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Most of those nations saw their climate pollution fall at an annual average rate exceeding China’s pledge, which would require a 1 percent reduction every year starting in 2025.

A 30 Percent Reduction Is Possible

China could actually achieve a 30% reduction by 2035, according to modeling by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. That would require maintaining China’s rapid pace of clean energy deployment and electric vehicle sales, along with ambitious decarbonization policies in sectors that are currently lagging, including steel and buildings.

Other researchers see the 30% target as unrealistic. “That number is very challenging for China — for both internal and external reasons,” Hu Bin, an associate professor at the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, told Pike. He pointed to major challenges in transitioning away from coal, getting clean energy onto the grid, and developing enough energy storage.

While many Western nations reduced their emissions by moving dirty factories overseas, China is the world’s manufacturing hub and will have to decarbonize its industries at home. Hu said his institute estimates China will cut emissions 10% to 15% by 2035. “I am very confident that this number will be achieved,” he said. “Given the speed and scale and the price of renewables in China, it is possible that China will do better.”

China Renewables Surge

In a recent report by Ember, the environmental group wrote, “China’s surge in renewables and whole economy electrification is rapidly reshaping energy choices for the rest of the world, creating the conditions for a decline in global fossil fuel use. The world stands at a pivotal moment. Climate change, energy security, and economic development are no longer separate challenges. Increasingly, they are interwoven — and so too must be our response. For too long, emerging economies have faced what seemed like a stark tradeoff between growth and sustainability. But the pace at which China is installing renewables challenges that assumption.

“Through scale, innovation and long term planning, China is demonstrating that decarbonization can go hand in hand with industrial upgrading, job creation, and improved quality of life. These lessons carry significance not only for China, but for the broader region — especially Southeast Asia, where energy demand is rising and development needs remain pressing.”