Annually since 2005, we’ve analyzed the aviation value chain. Our newest results, based on 2023 data, indicate a strong year in which eight of the 11 subsectors we track improved, compared with prepandemic levels. The aviation value chain as a whole achieved a significant recovery, recording a marginal 2023 economic loss of roughly $3.6 billion compared with its 2022 loss of about $67 billion.
Beneath the surface, there have been notable shifts. The airline sector notched its best performance in decades—nearly returning its cost of capital in aggregate—and featured the highest proportion of value-creating airlines that we’ve observed in the history of this analysis. Airports in some regions, however, continued to struggle amid the ongoing recovery of postpandemic traffic. Meanwhile, aircraft manufacturing supply chains faced challenges, which meant fewer new planes delivered and, on average, the commercial fleet aged—which created opportunities for the aircraft maintenance sector.
Our measure of value creation is economic profit, which considers the alternative return from equal-risk opportunities that investors could access. We analyzed participants from across the value chain, including airlines; OEMs that produce aircraft and engines; aircraft lessors; air navigation service providers; jet fuel producers; airports; catering suppliers; ground services companies; maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) organizations; freight forwarders; and providers of global distribution systems and other travel technologies. Below, we take a detailed look at the numbers.
Although still recovering from economic challenges created during the pandemic, many subsectors in the aviation value chain exhibited resilience in 2023—exhibiting performance that was significantly improved from the previous few years. Beneath the surface, shifts are occurring, and in every part of the value chain there are value creators. A continuing recovery across subsectors could generate opportunities to outperform for organizations that can identify the right market positions, strategies, and operational approaches.
