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For a couple of years there, legacy automakers were putting out a nearly constant stream of press releases about electric vehicles. It seemed the majority of their press releases in the US were about EVs. There was one announcement, or award, or feature, or partnership, or plan after another.
This year, it seems that trend ended. These automakers seldom have EV-related press releases, and they have a lot more other stuff in between.
I noticed this a while back, but thought maybe I was imagining it or it was just a slow-news season and things would pick up in a month or two. Not really….
Of course, automakers started talking about there being less demand than they expected for EVs — that was their claim, at least. Electric vehicle sales have continued to grow quite strongly for these brands in 2024, in some cases even speeding up, but they’ve stuck to the narrative that a lot of people don’t actually want EVs and they have pushed other non-electric cars, trucks, and SUVs much more.
Now, color me weird, but if I was finding that there wasn’t as much demand for a product I wanted to sell than I expected, I’d try to market that product more and better — I wouldn’t cut back significantly. But that’s the crux of it, and if one wants to be cynical, the whole narrative shift in 2024 combined with reduced news about their EVs could be a concerted ploy to sell fewer EVs.
I’ve been thinking about this overall topic all year. Ford led the way in talking about EV demand not being as much as the country had hoped, even while Ford’s EV sales rose nearly 100% year over year in the first quarter. It’s been a little confusing. I get it, maybe they could claim they were aiming for 200% or 300% growth, but really?
It wasn’t even when it hit me in recent weeks (or months) that EV press releases had diminished a lot that I realized what might be going on. But as I was thinking about writing this article, it hit me. And I have to admit — I feel a bit dumb that it’s taken me this long to focus in on this.
In Europe, California, and China, automakers sell electric vehicles in much higher volumes because they have to. If they don’t, they face steep fines. But the point they’ve proven, and we EV enthusiasts and owners knew all along would be the case, is that when automakers have to sell EVs, they don’t have much problem finding buyers. They try, they produce enough, and they sell them.
More broadly in the US, the EV rush and PR blitz about them were probably about other things, something other than sales. Rewinding a bit, when Tesla became profitable in the second half of 2018, its stock price finally exploded, and then it grew some more, and then it grew some more, and then it exploded some more. Tesla even engaged in a couple of stock splits. And from all that stock growth, Tesla’s market cap became larger than the several other legacy automakers’ market caps combined. Tesla’s market cap dwarfed the market cap of Ford or GM. Boards of directors and executives panicked. How could they get their stock prices to explode?
Naturally, the answer was simple: try to become leaders in EVs, or trick people into thinking you’re a leader. If you wanted to have a big stock boom, you had to show you were ahead of the others on EVs. EV marketing grew larger and larger. Nonetheless, automakers could never do enough and couldn’t get anywhere close to Tesla’s market cap. Currently, Tesla’s market cap is $677.21 billion, while Ford’s market cap is $41.78 billion and GM’s market cap is $50.94 billion. It’s not even close.
But if EVs weren’t going to boost their stock prices, what were they useful for. It’s not like automakers want to stop earning all their service revenue, or want to stop production at non-electric factories and auto lines. Why keep pushing EVs if your stock price/market cap isn’t getting anywhere close to Tesla’s.
And then Tesla went and focused on “Full Self Driving,” AI, and robotics. Automakers could then say, “Come on, man, we’re not in that business,” but it also lets them slow or even abandons their push for EVs.
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