China’s direct dumping of steel in foreign markets and indirect dumping via proxy countries are finally under the global lens. According to the Malaysian Trade Ministry, the country recently launched an investigation into whether or not to impose anti-dumping duties on flat-rolled iron or non-alloy steel products imported from China as well as India, Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, India has also initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled flat products from Vietnam. The move comes after complaints that these products were being sold at low prices, negatively affecting the local steel industry. As reported by MetalMiner in the past, Indian steel manufacturers have been raising concerns about inexpensive imports from China being routed through Vietnam under the India-ASEAN free trade agreement for some time now.
The primary issue is that the flood of cheap steel is driving down domestic steel prices.
Subscribe to MetalMiner’s free Monthly Metals Index report and leverage it as a valuable resource for tracking and predicting steel industry price trends. and market changes
Doubts Remain About China’s Steel Industry
China is under the microscope for other reasons as well. In fact, the world’s biggest steel producer recently raised the alarm over the ongoing crisis in the country, predicting a deeper industry downturn than even those major events in 2008 and 2015. China’s Baowu Steel Group Chairman, Hu Wangming, told employees at the company’s biannual meeting that conditions in the country were like a “harsh winter” that could become longer and colder and even more difficult.
China’s steel industry suffered severe downturns during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and again in 2015-2016. In both instances, the country managed to alleviate the crises via substantial stimulus measures. However, such a solution seems less likely under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s current leadership. Meanwhile, Hu’s blunt message will likely alarm competitors in Asia, Europe, and North America as they face a new surge of Chinese exports and push for trade measures in response.
Analysts currently expect shipments from China to hit around 100 million tons this year as Chinese producers seek to counteract a slowdown in their domestic market. This would be the highest level of export since since 2016.
India’s Anti-Dumping Probe Against Vietnam
The Indian government’s anti-dumping investigation arose after the Indian Steel Association (ISA), representing domestic producers like JSW Steel and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, filed a request for a probe into imports of hot-rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel from Vietnam.
According to an August 14 notification issued by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) under the Commerce Ministry, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that these products are indeed being dumped into the Indian market, thus posing a significant threat to the local steel industry.
Stay ahead of the curve of steel anti-dumping and tariff circumventing by reading our tips and tricks in our free resource The Art of Timing Your Metal Buy.
India’s Steel Industry Becomes Net Importer
The probe includes hot rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel, not clad, not plated or coated, with a thickness of up to 25 mm and width of up to 2100 mm. The investigation period covers January 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024. Meanwhile, Indian steel producers continue to invest billions in expanding their capacity. They also continue to express concerns that cheap imports could hurt cash flows and, in turn, slow down their expansion plans.
A report by CRISIL in June highlighted that India became a net importer of steel in fiscal year 2024, recording an overall steel trade deficit of 1.1 million tons. This represents a dramatic shift from the country’s status as a net exporter since fiscal 2017. The also report noted that while China was the largest exporter, South Korea and Japan continued substantial export volumes to India. Notably, Vietnam emerged as a key exporter, with shipments to India increasing by 130% year-on-year.
Get a competitive edge in challenging metal market conditions. Learn game-changing metal industry insights by opting into MetalMiner’s free weekly newsletter.
The Malaysian Steel Industry Probe
Surprisingly, India, South Korea, and Japan, along with China, all currently find themselves at the receiving end of a similar probe by the Malaysian government. According to the Malaysian Trade Ministry, the investigation started after a local producer filed a petition on July 15.
The producer claimed that flat-rolled iron or non-alloy steel products, at least 600 millimeters wide and coated with tin, were being sold below domestic prices from China, India, Japan and South Korea. They also argued that these imports had increased significantly, harming the local industry.
The Ministry plans to issue a preliminary finding within 120 days of starting the investigation, though they failed to specify an exact date. If the investigation supports the petition, the Ministry may impose a temporary anti-dumping duty to protect the domestic industry.
