The gold price has just broken out to new all-time record highs. Not a single person who has ever purchased gold in the history of human civilization has ever lost money on their purchase (if they held through today).
One would think that investors would therefore feel positive about the gold price today.
Yet when we check sentiment indicators – no one seems to care.
This backdrop of record high prices amidst indifferent sentiment is the most bullish setup that current investors could possibly ask for.
Higher prices lie ahead – this is our conclusion. Hang on to find out why.
Gold Record Highs
As of the publishing of this article, March 29, 2024, gold has just recorded new daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly all-time high record closes: the spot price of bullion settled at $2,233 per ounce today, the highest price ever recorded in the history of human civilization.
Normally, record high prices would attract mainstream attention, as news articles should loudly proclaim the new records to draw in readership interest. In the current case of gold, however, we see no such mainstream interest, despite the fact that gold itself has just recorded its highest price ever.
In the chart below we show the gold price over the previous twenty (20) years, noting the new record daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly all-time high closes at $2,233 per ounce:
Yet Sentiment Remains Poor
Despite these record high prices, interest amongst mainstream investors for gold is muted. Below we show the results of Google trends data for the phrase “gold price” from 2020 through present:
Note that the last time gold reached a new record high price ($2,075 per ounce in August 2020), the Google algorithm recorded a 100 level for mainstream investor interest. This is the most enthusiasm that had been recorded for the precious metal in the previous decade.
However, what then happened after investor interest reached the 100 level?
The gold price declined for over two years.
Yes, gold declined from its August 2020 peak of $2,075 down to its September 2022 low of $1,615 – falling $460 following the period of highest interest amongst mainstream investors.
Indeed and ironically, interest amongst mainstream investors should be taken to be a contrary indicator for the future gold price:
- When the majority is interested in gold à it means that the majority has already purchased gold.
- When the majority has already purchased gold à it means that there is no one left to buy.
- When there is no one left to buy à it means that prices can only decline.
This is why high mainstream interest should be taken to be a contrary indicator, and why gold prices declined for two years following the 2020 peak – too many people had already bought.
Back to the Present
To repeat: when mainstream interest reaches a peak level, we should be wary that a top in the gold price should be near.
In March 2024, however, what do we see?
Investor sentiment is 50% less than it was in 2020 at the previous peak:
From a contrarian standpoint, this poor sentiment amidst record high prices is an extremely positive indicator. It means that gold has further room still to advance, since the mainstream investor is not yet participating in this market.
Who Has Bought?
If the mainstream investor is not participating in this market, who has bought recently to send the price to record highs?
It could be sovereign wealth funds.
It could be central banks.
It could be large multinational institutions.
We can never know for certain who has purchased gold to cause a breakout as we see in the first chart above. What we can know, however, is that the buying did not come from the mainstream investor, as investor interest is still hovering at 50% below its peak level from 2020.
It is only when mainstream interest reaches relative extremes that we should be cautious for a top to be forming.
Takeaway on Gold
Gold has just recorded new record high closes across every timeframe that we could possibly measure.
Yet ironically, mainstream investors have not shown interest in the advancing gold market.
This is incredibly bullish – as it means that mainstream investors are still to come: they will pile onto the gold market (i.e. “FOMO” [Fear of Missing Out]) at some point in the future – only when prices are much higher.
The gold investor today is participating in a stealth bull market. Prices are rising, yet no one is paying attention.
Mainstream investors will come eventually. In the meanwhile, let us enjoy the relative solitude of being alone in the gold market while it rises quietly.
“When they want in… we want out!” is a phrase to remember for a future date.
At www.iGoldAdvisor.com, we are preparing to purchase stock in several gold mining companies. We buy shares in the open market, and also via private placements, which offer investors free warrants in addition to their shares for the highest possible gains.
iGold Advisor is 100% independent and takes no fees nor kickbacks from any companies referenced in our research.
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