(Reuters) – OPEC+ oil producers on Thursday agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024 led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its current voluntary cut.
Included in this figure is an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts of 1.3 million bpd, meaning the new element of the cut is about 900,000 bpd. The new cuts come on top of earlier curbs announced in various steps since late 2022.
OPEC+ negotiations over production quotas have often been difficult in the past, most recently at their June meeting.
WHAT CUTS WERE IN PLACE BEFORE THURSDAY?
OPEC+ in June extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, until the end of 2024.
In addition, Saudi Arabia since July has been making a 1 million-bpd voluntary reduction in output lasting until the end of December 2023. A Russian cut in oil exports of 300,000 bpd also lasts until the end of 2023.
HOW DOES THE NEW DEAL AFFECT OUTPUT TARGETS?
The latest round of cuts was announced by the individual countries on Thursday at the end of their online meeting.
OPEC+ issued a statement summarising the voluntary cuts as amounting to 2.2 million bpd and said they come on top of earlier ones announced in April 2023.
OPEC+ also revised 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola and Congo after reviews by outside analysts. Angola has protested to OPEC about its lower 2024 quota which it says is too low.
The following table shows OPEC+ pledged cuts and production targets for the first quarter of 2024 in millions of barrels per day, based on information from OPEC, individual nations and Reuters calculations.
| Country | Q1 2024 voluntary cuts pledged | Implied Q1 2024 targets** | Output target after Q1 2024 | Actual output (Oct 2023)* |
| Algeria | 0.051 | 0.908 | 0.959 | 0.96 |
| Angola | 0.000 | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.15 |
| Congo | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0.26 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.000 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 0.06 |
| Gabon | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.169 | 0.22 |
| Iraq | 0.220 | 4.009 | 4.22 | 4.38 |
| Kuwait | 0.135 | 2.413 | 2.548 | 2.57 |
| Nigeria | 0.000 | 1.500 | 1.500 | 1.35 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.000 | 9.000 | 9.978 | 9.01 |
| UAE | 0.163 | 2.912 | 3.075 | 3.25 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.000 | 0.551 | 0.551 | 0.49 |
| Kazakhstan | 0.082 | 1.468 | 1.55 | 1.63 |
| Mexico | 0.000 | 1.753 | 1.753 | 1.67 |
| Oman | 0.042 | 0.759 | 0.801 | 0.8 |
| Russia*** | 0.500 | 8.949 | 9.449 | 9.53 |
| Bahrain**** | 0 | 0.196 | 0.196 | 0.85 |
| Brunei | 0 | 0.083 | 0.083 | |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0.401 | 0.401 | |
| South Sudan | 0 | 0.124 | 0.124 | |
| Sudan | 0 | 0.064 | 0.064 | |
| Total OPEC-10 | 1.569 | 22.358 | 23.896 | 23.21 |
| Total Non-OPEC | 0.624 | 14.348 | 14.972 | 14.98 |
| Total OPEC+ | 2.19 | 36.706 | 38.868 | 38.19 |
* IEA figures
** Angola, Congo and Nigeria targets taken from OPEC statement putting their achievable production at this level
*** Russia is cutting its oil and product exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023 and promised to deepen the cuts to 500,000 bpd of oil and oil product exports in the first quarter 2024.
**** Figure is total for Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan
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