Remember these two lines from last week?
- “…across the past two years, weekly parabolic Short trends for Gold have been great news!”
- “…across the past two years, the parabolic Short trends have been buying opportunities for Gold…”
Ya gotta luv it: Friday a week back, Gold confirmed the commencement of a new weekly parabolic Short trend. But from this past Monday’s opening print at 4069 (basis December), Gold (after a wee-hours dip to 4036) strapped on the rocket-pack to conclude the week at 4224. And as contract volume en route rolled from December into that for February, add in another +32 points of fresh premium and Gold settled the week yesterday (Friday) at 4256. ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.
To employ a little liberalized latin lingo: for the “glass half-empty” sagaciti, Gold now priced at 4256 resides +9.5% (+368 points) above the opening Scoreboard’s Fair Value of 3888. However, the “glass half-full” cognoscenti see Gold as just -3.2% (-142 points) below its 4398 All-Time High. So given Gold’s “expected weekly trading range” is now 183 points, (the “daily” per the website being 85 points), next week is within range for Gold to score a further All-Time High.
Which is the perfect segue into Sister Silver. What a week — indeed a year — for the white metal! Yesterday, whilst those of you StateSide were lazing about with stomachs a-full, Silver blew the doors off her previous All-Time High of 54.42 (basis December on 13 November) by skyrocketing to 57.25 (basis March). You WestPalmBeachers down there did not forget the Silver, right? … (in having been herein reminded ad nauseam for some four years to not so do). To be sure, Gold’s premium-inclusive net gain for the past week was +4.8% … yet that for Silver was +15.0%! Her powerful performance in turn dropped the Gold/Silver ratio from 81.8x of just a week ago to now 74.6x, the lowest reading since 29 May 2024. And through the 11 months year-to-date? Fasten your racing harness:
That’s right, folks: Silver through November is +94.9%! Extrapolate her year-to-date pace through the final 22 trading days which remain in 2025, and year-end puts her at 59.74, +104.0%! From Silver’s Friday settle at 57.09, that 59.74 level is a “mere” +2.65 points away. “Doable”, you ask? Absolutely, given Silver’s expected monthly trading range is currently 5.35 points. Moreover, per the aforementioned Gold/Silver ratio now at 74.6x, were Silver priced today to that ratio’s century-to-date average of 69.4x, she’d already be +7.4% higher from here at 61.32 … just in case you’re scoring at home in anticipation of means reversion.
Either way, as a celebratory addition for Stellar Sister Silver, we’ve paired her weekly bars and parabolic trends with those of Gold from a year ago-to-date. And like those of the yellow metal, the white metal’s red-dotted Short trends on balance are not that damaging, indeed having been BuySide optimistic such as to have brought on her latest blue-dotted parabolic Long trend:
Again it being month-end, let’s next go to the year-over-year performance tracks of Gold and key of its equities brethern. Looking top-down, we’ve the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +124%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +122%, Newmont (NEM) +114%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +113%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) +111%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +74%, and least-leveraged Gold itself nonetheless +62%. Equities leverage of two-to-one also is a beautiful thAng. Especially note PAAS during just November:
Life at the top is the current state of the precious metals. Here we’ve the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. The respective single white bars are Friday’s settles. Not bad, eh?
“The High Life” indeed. Let’s next go ’round the horn for all eight of our BEGOS Markets across the last 21 trading days (one month), featuring the respective grey linear regression trendlines and baby blue dots that depict the day-to-date consistency of each trend. The precious metals’ panels are framed in vivid violet, just for emphasis. And how ’bout dat Copper!
“So can we play your tune, mmb?” Spin it, Squire:
“Follow the Blues instead of the news, else lose yer shoes”
(Squire has this closet DJ thing going on of late).
Now to peek at the Economic Barometer and accompanying S&P 500 (red line). And you know the old expression that when government is out of the way, (i.e. “gridlock is good”), the economy is less suffocated. However: even though nearly three weeks have passed since the StateSide “shutdown” was resolved, there actually is an increase in missing metrics as bureaus are strained to “catch-up”. In fact, since 01 October, there’ve been 98 scheduled Econ Baro metrics, of which half (49) are now missing; a week ago ’twas 46. All that said, such absence of data has evolved into a rising Baro such that we penned in yesterday’s Prescient Commentary “…the Econ Baro has returned to its highest level since last February, which if detected by the FOMC may see rates held steady rather than cut come the 10 December Policy Statement….”:
Sadly of course per the graphic, earnings remain unsupportive of the S&P’s catastrophically high price level. (But then again, that’s archaic old-school piffle; today nobody cares).
Toward this week’s wrap we’ve the Gold Structure by the month across the past 16 years. Concern over the last month’s “failed” October candle was short-lived, albeit let us be cognizant that we’ve only just begun a weekly parabolic Short trend, (which with bullish persistance, too, shall fail of its own accord).
“Here ya go mmb, Carpenters 1970…” “We’ve only just begun…”
Indeed, “DJ” Squire. Aren’t you instead supposed to be on avalanche control this time of year?
“Yeah mmb, during next month up in the Haute-Tarentaise.”
You might mind the S&P as well, Squire, as when it goes over the cliff, ’tis gonna be scary! Meanwhile, here’s the happy Gold Structure:
We wrap with a deserving spotlight on Sister Silver. Yesterday whilst deep within the bowels of our highly-securitized, electrified/sarinized-guarded metals’ facility, we came across this rather severely-tarnished, 105-year-old 1923 U.S. Silver “Peace” Dollar. Curious to solely its silver content value, we did the math, marked to the current Silver price of $57.09. It’s 90% pure Silver content amounts to .7734 troy ounces: thus such One Dollar coin is today worth $44.15 (plus a collectible premium). That’s a whole lotta currency debasement … “Got Silver?”
Cheers!
…m…
www.TheGoldUpdate.com
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