Brazil-based mining company Vale is preparing to capitalise on a surge in demand from India, which could double its steel production by the end of the decade.
The company expects higher sales to India and other Asian markets to compensate for sluggish demand in China, where steel output has plateaued at roughly one billion tonnes per year and may decline in the coming years, reported Reuters.
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Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta was quoted by Reuters as saying: “India has 1.6 billion people, has surpassed China, and needs massive infrastructure investments, which means a lot of steel.”
He added that India’s steelmaking capacity could increase to around 300 million tonnes (mt) over the next five to seven years.
Pimenta further said that Vale’s high-grade ore blends effectively with India’s lower-quality supply, a combination that could benefit both markets.
“We bring quality to the Indian mix. As steel output doubles, we see a big growth opportunity,” said Pimenta.
India is projected to import around 10mt of Vale’s ore in 2025, up from almost none in previous years, although this remains a small fraction of Vale’s sales to China, which account for around 60%.
While China is expected to remain the world’s largest steel producer, Vale expects the country’s output to stabilise.
The company also expects rising demand from other Asian markets, with sales to Vietnam projected to reach 8mt in 2025, a substantial increase from previous years.
Vale recently reported results for the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025), with 5% sales growth and its highest iron ore output since 2018.
Although Pimenta declined to comment on new production targets, he confirmed that Vale will outline projects to expand iron ore and copper capacity in its key Northern System operations.
The company plans to invest 70bn reais ($13.14bn) by 2030 in its Novo Carajas programme in Brazil, which includes a project to increase annual iron ore capacity by 20mt.
The initiative is now 80% complete and is scheduled to begin operations in late 2026.
Vale also plans to double its copper output by 2035.
Outside Brazil, Vale is considering selling its Thompson nickel mine in Canada, citing market interest and weak prices amid increased output from Indonesia.
