This Is How Far Tesla Is Behind Its 2020s Growth Target – CleanTechnica

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Elon Musk has clearly changed the narrative around Tesla. For several years, it was all about the company’s vehicle sales growth. As Musk said repeatedly, the company was going to grow its vehicle sales by 50% a year, on average, in the 2020s. Now, the hype is that it is a robotics and AI company. Despite saying it repeatedly in the past, Musk no longer talks about that 50% growth a year target.

While in discussions about Tesla’s 3rd quarter results — some positive, some definitely not — it crossed my mind that no one ever checks where we are on that 50% a year growth target. So, I just went ahead and ran some numbers.

First of all, let’s note that 2020 was a weird year. Due to the economic lockdowns and lack of production and sales that resulted from that, it’s a little absurd to take 2020 as a starting year. Just to be a bit OCD about it, I do have a calculation with 2020 as the starting point, but I think the much more appropriate evaluation starts with 2021.

Starting with Tesla’s delivery figures in the first 9 months of 2020 (318,980), and using a CAGR of 50%, Tesla should have sold 2,422,302 vehicles in the first 9 months of 2025. Instead, it has sold 1,217,902.

Starting with Tesla’s delivery figures in the first 9 months of 2021 (627,481), and using a CAGR of 50%, Tesla should have sold 3,176,623 vehicles in the first 9 months of 2025. Instead, it has sold 1,217,902.

Or perhaps you want to go back further and start in 2019, pre-COVID.

Starting with Tesla’s delivery figures in the first 9 months of 2019 (255,542), and using a CAGR of 50%, Tesla should have sold 2,909,088 vehicles in the first 9 months of 2025. Instead, it has sold 1,217,902.

So, starting at the beginning of 2019, Tesla is about 1.7 million vehicle sales off the mark so far in 2025. Starting at the beginning of 2020, Tesla is about 1.2 million vehicle sales off the mark. Starting at the beginning of 2021, Tesla is nearly 2 million vehicle sales off the mark.