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The US Environmental Protection Agency released a big report yesterday, the 50th annual Automotive Trends Report. This report analyzed fuel economy improvements in the US (focusing on 2023 model year vehicles), and it found that, thanks to policies pushing for better and better fuel economy, the country saw its best vehicle fuel economy in history and the lowest greenhouse gas emissions from new vehicles in history as well. But, of course, that’s to be expected. Automobiles should be improving, we should be buying more and more full electric and plugin vehicles (which provide much better fuel economy), and the industry should be focused on cutting emissions. It’s good that there’s progress, but we could certainly do more.
The problem is that we’ve had swings back and forth in the level of fuel economy requirements — Democrats get into power and the fuel economy standards go up, Republicans get into power and they go down, Democrats get into power again and the y go up, Republicans get into power again and they go down. (It’s just one reason of many I don’t want to hear “both parties are the same” nonsense ever again.) The fact is that we have relatively weak requirements, much weaker than China or Europe. Even when Democrats are in power, they are heavily lobbied, pressured, and challenged in various ways (including the courts) to not make the fuel economy requirements too hard.
Frankly, the next piece of good news from the EPA on this matter actually tells me that the requirements aren’t strict enough. “The report also shows that all 14 large automotive manufacturers are in compliance with EPA’s light-duty GHG program requirements through the MY 2023 reporting period,” the EPA writes. If all 14 of these auto manufacturers are in compliance, fine, that’s a good thing, but it probably also means the requirements are too easy to hit.
Anyway, the good news is that we are seeing lower greenhouse gas emissions due to the vehicle fleet getting more and more efficient. “Today, the new MY 2023 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the road have led to 11% lower CO2 emissions.” However, the EPA itself says this really isn’t enough and we have a long ways to go. “Despite these significant improvements in local air pollution that have benefited Americans, passenger cars and light trucks still accounted for nearly 17% of total US GHG emissions in 2022, indicating the importance of further reductions in GHG emissions and improvements in fuel economy.”
Looking back much further, progress has been immense. There’s no denying that, and it’s great to see. “Over the course of 50 years, there have been many notable vehicle emission and public health accomplishments. Since EPA began keeping data in 1975, vehicles today are roughly 99% cleaner for common pollutants (such as hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particle emissions) which can help alleviate adverse health effects such as asthma and heart problems, and limit hospital days and cancer. In addition, fuel economy in the United States has improved from 13.1 miles per gallon in MY 1975 to 27.1 mpg for MY 2023 vehicles.” We’re in a much better place today than we were in the 1980s and 1990s when I grew up.
Here are some other highlights the EPA picked out from the report:
- For MY 2023, new vehicle fuel economy increased by 1.1 mpg reaching a record high 27.1 miles mpg.
- For MY 2023, new vehicle real-world CO2 emissions decreased to a record low of 319 grams per mile. By saving an additional 18 grams per mile of CO2 on each vehicle produced in the United States in MY 2023, the impact on climate change is reduced.
- Since MY 2004, CO2 emissions have decreased 31%, or 142 g/mi, and fuel economy has increased 40%, or 7.8 mpg.
- Since MY 2004, CO2 emissions have improved in 16 of 19 years.
- EVs and PHEVs are accelerating the downward trend in new vehicle real-world emissions. These vehicles have reduced CO2 emissions by 38 g/mi and improved fuel economy by 2.2 mpg in MY 2023.
- In MY 2023, the combined category of battery-electric vehicles, PHEVs, and fuel cell vehicles increased from 6.7% of production in MY 2022 to 11.5% of production in MY 2023 and are projected to reach 14.8% of production in model year 2024. This accelerating trend will likely continue as EV production is expected to grow across the industry in coming years.
Unfortunately, one thing we know for sure — Trump and his administration will weaken and water down US fuel economy standards again. We’re in trouble. We’re going to go backward and just fall further behind Europe and China, while contributing far too much to global heating emissions.
For more, read the 50th EPA Annual Automotive Trends Report.
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