Is This The Year Of Peak Energy Emissions? – CleanTechnica

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On one hand, 2024 is likely to be the year of global peak energy emissions. “It is a historic moment,” cheers the World Economic Forum (WEF) in this year’s edition of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook.

On the other hand, we have so much more work to do before we can glimpse the finish line of Paris Climate Agreement targets. By 2050, global CO2 emissions will be halved from current levels, but this trajectory fails to reach net zero in 2050 and is commensurate with a consequential anticipated warming of 2.2°C by the end of the century. The DNV publication argues that “the transition towards a sustainable energy future remains alarmingly slow. In other words, the energy transition is on the right track — but it is traveling at the wrong speed.”

Massive fossil energy consumption has caused serious air pollution problems, such as carbon dioxide emissions, which has aroused great concern for most countries all over the world. Energy is central to the climate crisis. We need to end our reliance on fossil fuels and invest in alternative sources of energy that are clean, accessible, affordable, sustainable, and reliable. How can such an energy balance be achieved? What’s the holdup, anyways?

How much are fossil fuels responsible for energy emissions? Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.

Why are energy-related emissions ready to decline for the first time since the Industrial Revolution? Before the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840), emissions were very low. As the WEF explains, however, with the increased use of fossil fuels to power machines, emissions rose to 6 billion tons of CO₂ per year globally by 1950. The amount had almost quadrupled by 1990, reaching a rate of over 22 billion tons per year. Currently, the world emits over 34 billion tons of CO₂ each year. Since 1751, the world has emitted over 1.5 trillion tons of CO₂ cumulatively.

How has increasing adoption of renewable energy alternatives influenced this moment in time of peak energy emissions? Renewable energy is a green and low-carbon energy and mainly consists of solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy and bioenergy. The build-out of renewables has reached such a level that emissions are peaking. 2024 is poised to be a pivotal year, marking the peak of global energy-related CO2 emissions.

What are some other positive consequences of renewable energy? Developing renewable energy is also conducive to energy structure improvement, conservation of ecosystem, climate change mitigation, and achieving sustainable economic and social development.

What is working really well in renewable energy? Three areas stand out.

• Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations surged by 80% in 2023 — reaching 400 GW, meeting the large share of the increasing electricity demand, and curbing coal power growth.
• The plummeting costs of batteries, which fell by 14% last year, are making 24-hour solar+storage power more accessible and affordable.
• The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in China, is also contributing to a decline in petroleum demand, signaling a shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Why isn’t renewable energy doing enough to speed the world toward net zero? Hard-to-electrify sectors —  such as heavy industry, maritime, and aviation — as well as competing national objectives and diverted resources are all making it harder to decarbonize our economies at the pace required.

Can’t market forces influence emissions reductions? Market forces alone are insufficient to achieve the necessary emissions reductions. While they have been effective in promoting renewable electricity and EV uptake, they fall short in addressing the complexities of other sectors. The Outlook argues that “”carbon emissions are not sufficiently priced, and fossil fuel subsidies continue to distort the market.”

Are there any regions whose market policies are supporting emissions reductions? Europe’s comprehensive decarbonization policies, which combine incentives for renewables with a price on carbon disincentivizing emissions, serve as a model for other regions. Yet, in DNV’s model, it is assumed that Europe will reduce emissions 85% by 2050, not 100%.

As Canary Media outlines, no country is installing more renewables or adopting more EVs than China, and its massive markets and manufacturing power have helped drive down the cost of clean energy technologies worldwide. As just one example, China produced nearly 90% of the world’s solar panels in 2023 — and more than half were used at solar installations in the country itself.

Final Thoughts

Sverre Alvik, director of the energy transition research program in DNV and responsible for DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, argues that governments must prioritize clean energy over military spending to accelerate the transition. He states that there is a growing mismatch between what is required to accelerate the energy transition and the priorities of governments. “Money is flowing towards military and national security spending rather than reaching net zero,” and politicians are reluctant to make “bold decisions on energy infrastructure with taxpayers cash, when households have been buffeted by years of high inflation.”

“We need a refocused and globally coordinated policy push to decarbonize our energy mix even faster,” Alvik summarizes in the report, which has been widely republished on Forbes and other media outlets.

Hope springs eternal, though. Alvik reminds us that solar is a cheaper form of electricity generation compared to coal in most parts of the world, and “the growth of EVs stunted the uptake to oil.”

Moreover, despite “a recent pivot away from net zero goals in many countries,” the transition to renewables has not been entirely stifled. Trends to reinforce the power and place of the fossil fuel industry have “not stopped some policymakers from introducing significant legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. With the 1.5 degree target out of the window, we need a refocused and globally coordinated policy push to decarbonize our energy mix even faster.”

Alvik ends on a positive note.

“The 1.5°C target can only be achieved with a significant temporary temperature overshoot. But we cannot give up, and the importance of achieving the ‘well below 2°C’ ambition of the Paris Agreement is more important than ever. It should inspire us towards continued efforts; even more so now that peak energy emissions finally looks to be achieved.”