UN Report Predicts 3.1°C Average Global Temperature Increase By 2100 – CleanTechnica

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The 1.5°C target set in Paris in 2015 was only possible if the nations of the world all worked together to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But, of course, they didn’t. They focused instead on building military weapons and extracting more oil and gas from more places. In other words, they did exactly the opposite of what they needed to do to protect humanity from an environment that will be savagely hotter as temperature increases occur. The signs are everywhere. The Florida Keys are underwater much of the time at high tide. Powerful typhoons and hurricanes are ravaging many parts off the world. The Sahara Desert is flooding, while there is not enough water in the Panama Canal to float the largest cargo ships.

On October 24, 2024, the United Nations issued its Emissions Gap Report, which finds that nations must deliver dramatically stronger ambition and action in the next round of nationally determined contributions or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years. What are nationally determined contributions? According to Wikipedia, they are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation. These commitments include the necessary policies and measures for achieving the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

Global Average Temperature Continues To Rise

Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high and going up rather than down. Urgent action must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid the worst impact of climate change, the UN report says. In short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately. “Climate crunch time is here,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Program. “We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges.” If not, she warned, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures set in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit.”

Released at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks the gap between where global emissions are heading with current country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C to meet the intent of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. The report says the 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years unless nations collectively commit to cut 42 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions, and back this up with rapid action.

These NDCs are intended to outline the steps each nation intends to take in order to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts from drought, flooding, and extreme weather events and securing the necessary funds to make them a reality. Those plans are supposed to be updated every five years, the next time being in early 2025 ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

Without dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully deliver on their promises. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an abstract notion. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. “We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”

Guterres Issues Urgent Call To Action

The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference in Baku in November should serve as a launching pad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious national plans, he said, adding that the event “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year. Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” which means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole economy, pushing progress in every sector. Guterres urged the largest economies to lead in this process, meaning the so-called G20 member nations that are responsible for about 80 percent of all emissions.

Gutierrez was upbeat about the role new technologies can play in reducing global emissions to moderate temperature increases.  “Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said. The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030 — about 52 percent of global emissions in 2023 — and by 41 gigatons by 2035. Doing so would go a long way toward meeting the 1.5°C target for both years.

Boosting solar photovoltaic and wind energy usage could contribute 27 percent of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 percent by 2035. Forest conservation could provide another 20 percent of the necessary reductions in both years. Other effective strategies include improving energy efficiency, electrifying the built environment, transportation, and industry, the UN report said.

Unprecedented Cooperation Needed

But here’s the kicker. Meeting any of those goals will require unprecedented international cooperation, the UN report warns. Stop right there! When has that ever happened, except to wage war on each other? The UN can issue all the reports it wants. Nobody is reading them or adjusting their national behavior one iota because of them. The only thing humans know how to do well by way of collective action is invent new and interesting ways to murder each other. Although, if you kill others as part of a war, that makes you a hero.

Continuing with current policies means the world will be on course for a temperature rise of 3.1°C before the end of the century, while implementing promised reforms would at best lead to an increase of 2.6°C — well above the level at which critical climate tipping points may be breached, the UN Environment Program said. Little progress has been made over the past few years despite repeated calls for stronger action plans. “The emissions gap has not changed,” said Anne Olhoff, UNEP’s chief climate advisor, in an interview. “Countries have not responded to calls from the three last COPs to strengthen their 2030 targets and as a result, we are facing the same emissions gap and some dire temperature projections.”

The question of what more needs to be done to bend the curve of emissions to keep temperature rise in check will largely be left unanswered at this year’s COP29 summit in Baku, which will focus on how to scale climate finance from billions to trillions of dollars, or roughly 1 percent of total global economic output.

Despite the size of the existing emissions gap, there are some signs of progress. UNEP estimates there is a 70% chance that global emissions will decline this year if current cleantech growth continues and other emissions such as from methane are reduced substantially. China — currently the world’s biggest polluter — saw its carbon emissions fall by 1% in the second quarter of this year. But while the 1.5°C goal remains “technically possible,” the UNEP report stressed it will require massive effort. How likely do you think that is to happen?