Gold is nearing our $2,800 target, with the potential for further gains into year-end.
Historically, during the last two Fed rate-cutting cycles, gold surged approximately 40% following the initial cut. If this pattern holds, gold could reach $3,500 next year.
Newmont kicked off earnings season by narrowly missing EPS estimates. Thursday’s price collapse was likely due to bursting all-in-sustaining costs of $1,611 per ounce in Q3.
Gold Sentiment
Despite gold reaching new all-time highs, Google searches for “gold price” are still below the peaks seen over the past five years. This indicates that investor interest remains subdued, suggesting there may be potential for further upside.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=gold%…
Technical Update
GOLD- Gold formed a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday—a potential warning sign. Prices would have to close below $2,722 to complete a swing high and promote more downside. Otherwise, I’m treating this as a 1 to 3-day pause before attacking $2,800. A price spike much higher remains possible.
SILVER- Silver hit stiff resistance at $35.00, and prices are correcting. Support near $32.50 should they dip further.
PLATINUM- Platinum briefly spiked above $1,050 but couldn’t hold those gains. The series of higher highs supports a test of the long-term trendline in the coming days.
GDX- Miners formed a swing high, and we’ve started another pullback triggered by disappointing Newmont earnings. I still see the potential for an accelerated advance if prices maintain the curved parabolic trendline. Progressive closes below $40.00 would nullify this thesis.
GDXJ- Juniors were down slightly (compared to GDX), continuing to show relative strength. I still see the potential for a breakout if prices hold support near $52.00.
SILJ- Silver juniors finished nearly flat on the day, and holding support near $14.00 would continue to promote an upside breakout.
NEM- Newmont fell short of Q3 EPS estimates by just 2.41%, yet its stock plummeted over 14%. This sharp decline is likely attributed to a significant increase in all-in-sustaining costs, which rose to $1,611 per ounce.
Expenditures should fall to around $1,400 per ounce as the company divests higher-cost assets by 2026. Despite these elevated costs, profit margins remain strong, with gold above $2,700. Production is expected to rise sharply in Q4.
A consolidation phase isn’t unthinkable, given prices have surged over 100% in the past eight months.
AEM- Agnico Eagle remains up over 100% from its February low and will deliver earnings on October 30th (after the close). Hopefully, they will report better than Newmont. This stock remains my favorite major.
Conclusion
The bull market in precious metals is just beginning and is expected to continue into the 2030s. Gold could reach between $8,000 and $10,000, while I foresee silver exceeding $200. I believe high quality miners will likely deliver the strongest performance.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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